Last update: 20.05.2022

Berlin Real Estate Report 2022

About 1,000,000 readers cannot be mistaken. The services and reports of Guthmann Estate are the best basis for your success with real estate in Berlin.

 

(No) End of Boom in Sight?

Our update on the real estate market in Berlin, as of 20.05.2022 , cannot do without a look at current geopolitical circumstances. Just when the Corona crisis seemed to be largely overcome, war broke out in Ukraine. Is the Berlin real estate market as resilient in the face of the Ukraine war as it was previously under the pandemic? 

Both crises subsume diverse impacts that will be decisive for the development. 

  1. Property assets continue to gain in importance. The current uncertainty will increase demand for private real estate rather than slow it down. Real estate remains the most important tangible asset and promises value stability.
  2. Interest rates are rising. Banks are anticipating the ECB and are already noticeably increasing lending rates. In view of high and rising purchase prices, equity requirements for buyers are growing in parallel. With a view to the increasingly likely key interest rate increases, investors are activating cash reserves. Those who can buy, buy.
  3. Construction costs are rising. Abrupt shortages due to interrupted supply routes or producer failures are fuelling construction price developments. Rising construction costs are passed on to consumers in purchase prices and new construction rents.
  4. The supply of housing is declining overall. The number of apartments on offer in Berlin has been falling constantly for years due to market regulation.
  5. How the war in Ukraine and the sanctions will affect the real estate market in Berlin cannot be estimated at present. In the segment of private purchasers in Berlin that we briefly examined, there is nothing to suggest that Russian buyers own an unusually large number of properties in Berlin. From 2007 to 2018 inclusive, according to the figures we have, the Berlin Expert Committee registered 41 apartment blocks with Russian purchasers, as well as 817 existing apartments and 890 new apartments (period 2010 to 2019). In 2019, the average apartment size was about 88m² in new construction and about 62m² in older construction classes, which leads to the assumption that these are small investments or vacation homes.

Berlin Real Estate: Buying Market

In Berlin, the number of properties coming onto the market is declining year by year. We have compared the annual trends from 2015 to 2022 and examined how many new properties (new and existing) are offered on the market each calendar week. The chart shows how supply is shrinking year over year. Click on the years in the legend to show or hide them.

First signs of lateral trends

As of 20.05.2022 , the median asking price for properties in Berlin is around 5,390 EUR/m², which corresponds to a development of around 4.80 % compared to the same period a year ago. For the first time in years, purchase prices are thus rising at a noticeably slower pace.

In 12 months, approximately 26,350 apartments were listed in the property portals. In new construction, the 12-month median list price is around 8,170 EUR/m². During this period, about 5,120 objects were brought to the market. The development of purchase prices is not homogeneous across all districts of Berlin. In some trend locations, market participants feel that the explosive increases of the past three years are exaggerated and are dampening the price expectations of sellers.    

Sharp price curve in the new-build segment

New construction prices have developed much more strongly than portfolio properties, with the 12-month median list price at around 8,170 EUR/m². In one year, about 5,120 properties were put on the market, prices increased by around 18.50 % across the entire city area. 

Price Index Berlin

As of 20.05.2022 , median asking rents existing and new buildings.

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 5,390 EUR/m² - 8,360 EUR/m² -
1 Year 5,140 EUR/m² 4.80 % 7,050 EUR/m² 18.50 %
3 Years 4,400 EUR/m² 22.60 % 6,220 EUR/m² 34.50 %
5 Years 3,530 EUR/m² 52.70 % 5,300 EUR/m² 57.70 %
10 Years 1,980 EUR/m² 173.00 % 3,500 EUR/m² 139.10 %
Data basis: IS24, Immowelt, Immonet offers, period: 20.05.2022 - 3 months, percentage changes compared with prior-year period

Offer market: clustering by year of construction and apartment sizes

  • Existing buildings: approx. 26,350 offers on IS24/Immowelt/Immonet 
  • New buildings: approx. 5,120 offers on IS24/Immowelt/Immonet 

The Bubblechart shows the purchase offers clustered according to year of construction, unit size and asking price. Upper limit at 300 m² living space and a 12,000 EUR/m². Choose the building year classes to be displayed in the menu.

Thank you for visiting our reports. Do not hesitate to contact us if you are planning to sell your property in Berlin. Over 1,000 readers every day are 1,000 potential buyers for your properties. 

What can we do for you?

By proceeding you confirm that you have read and accept the Guthmann Estate GmbH privacy policy. You allow Guthmann Estate GmbH to contact you in order to create your search profile for the submission of individual property offers. Of course, you can unsubscribe from all our offers at any time.

Trend

As Germany's top location for residential real estate, Berlin continues to be a trendy city. Residential real estate in particular is in demand as an investment, as commitments can be scaled from micro-investments to apartment buildings. Even in the pandemic, residential real estate in Berlin has proven to be crisis-resistant and so far the Ukraine conflict has not led to serious problems in the Berlin real estate market. Price developments continue to be driven by demand. "Organic" inflows are picking up again, but are not yet back to pre-pandemic levels. The large number of refugees having to leave their homes in Ukraine is expected to put additional pressure on the real estate market. 

Currently, banks are raising interest rates for real estate financing, which could cause difficulties in the private investor segment. In the case of institutional investors, investment pressure remains high despite rising interest rates. Properties are being checked more closely and exaggerated price expectations on the part of owners are no longer automatically met. 

Regulation is currently almost not talked about in Berlin; it is accepted as normality by most market players. The major points of contention, rent caps and preemption practices, have been resolved in 2021 with the supreme court rulings from Karlsruhe and Leipzig.  

Finally, construction activity in Berlin is at a high level and will ease the rental market in the long term. However, the rising cost of land and construction is causing prices for new condominiums in Berlin to rise rapidly and is having a pull effect on prices for existing apartments. The limit for price increases in the owner-occupied segment in Berlin will be purchasing power and net household incomes.

Our purchase price index shows a moderate development of around 4.5 percent for the past 12 months.

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+12.40 % 6,190 EUR/m²
+35.10 % 11,920 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+4.10 % 5,390 EUR/m²
+14.90 % 9,900 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+9.20 % 4,860 EUR/m²
+16.50 % 7,070 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
+10.40 % 7,090 EUR/m²
+0.70 % 9,150 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
+5.90 % 4,740 EUR/m²
+10.90 % 6,960 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
+16.70 % 3,860 EUR/m²
+8.30 % 5,830 EUR/m²
Mitte
+28.30 % 9,410 EUR/m²
+14.60 % 11,420 EUR/m²
Moabit
+14.90 % 5,300 EUR/m²
+37.40 % 10,560 EUR/m²
Neukölln
-3.00 % 4,460 EUR/m²
+16.90 % 8,820 EUR/m²
Pankow
+24.60 % 5,600 EUR/m²
+24.50 % 7,330 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
+6.80 % 6,620 EUR/m²
+55.40 % 11,460 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+6.80 % 4,100 EUR/m²
+18.10 % 7,190 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+15.40 % 5,790 EUR/m²
+10.00 % 9,930 EUR/m²
Spandau
+6.20 % 4,140 EUR/m²
+6.80 % 6,120 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+3.90 % 4,910 EUR/m²
+27.20 % 8,470 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
+13.30 % 4,500 EUR/m²
+12.20 % 6,300 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+0.10 % 7,070 EUR/m²
+42.70 % 13,330 EUR/m²
Treptow
+11.40 % 4,530 EUR/m²
+24.50 % 7,210 EUR/m²
Wedding
+4.80 % 4,380 EUR/m²
+23.90 % 8,050 EUR/m²
Weißensee
-10.00 % 5,160 EUR/m²
+15.20 % 7,910 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+6.70 % 6,570 EUR/m²
+4.60 % 9,270 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
+15.50 % 6,130 EUR/m²
+17.90 % 10,060 EUR/m²

Political agenda 2022

In the new government, there is an independent Federal Ministry for Building, Construction, Housing and Urban Development. Federal Minister Klara Geywitz (SPD), who heads the department, has brought remarkable personnel to her side. State Secretary Sören Bartol and State Secretary Cansel Kiziltepe, both SPD, have profiled themselves as strong supporters of the failed rent cap and pre-purchase practice. Which projects will make it onto the agenda in the next four years will depend not only on political ideas but also on the federal government's financial situation. 

  • The profit taxation is still considered a possible scenario. This would include a possible abolition of the speculation period in its current form or the extension of the holding period.
  • It is considered likely that share deals will be restructured and made economically unattractive.
  • A nationwide rent cap is considered unlikely, a so-called rent moratorium is not.
  • A cap on the permissible rent increase from currently 15 to 11 per cent in 3 years is considered almost certain.
  • A plan to oblige the municipalities to draw up a rent index on a uniform basis is also considered possible.
  • A tightening of the rent brake is also considered likely.

It is becoming clear that the coming legislative period will not only be characterised by more efforts in new construction, but also by regulatory ambitions. So it is quite possible that the projects that failed at the Berlin level will be revived under the responsibility of the federal government. It will be interesting to see what a possible balance of interests between finance (FDP), justice (FDP), interior ministry (SPD) and housing and construction (SPD) will be like.

Free, anonymous and instant online assessment in seconds

Get an instant estimate of the value of your Berlin property from Berlin's most data-driven real estate agents. 

Rental Housing Market in Berlin

In 2018 and 2019, the rental growth in Berlin's rental housing market had slowed down and moved sidewards in terms of rents. Recently, the price trend accelerated again. Existing flats built up to 2015 are currently being offered at a median rent of around 13.00 EUR/m², which corresponds to a development of around 3.50 % in 12 months. In 12 months median supply value is 12.90 EUR/m². In 5 years, the increase in asking rents in the stock thus amounted to approx. 29.00 %.  

Rents in new buildings

Offer rents currently average around 21.25 EUR/m², representing a year-over-year price adjustment of about 11.10 %, based on 3,540 Offers in 12 months. Within the last 5 years, the cold rents in new construction thus developed by about 53.70 %.

Price index rents Berlin

As of 20.05.2022 , median asking rents existing and new buildings.

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 13.00 EUR/m² - 21.25 EUR/m² -
1 Year 12.55 EUR/m² 3.50 % 19.10 EUR/m² 11.10 %
3 Years 11.25 EUR/m² 15.50 % 15.45 EUR/m² 37.60 %
5 Years 10.10 EUR/m² 29.00 % 13.80 EUR/m² 53.70 %
Data basis: IS24, Immowelt, Immonet offers, period: 20.05.2022 - 3 months, percentage changes compared with prior-year period

Insertions in 12 months

  • Buildings with year of construction before 2015, approx.: 37,630 offers on IS24/Immowelt/Immonet 
  • New buildings with year of construction after 2015, approx.:. 3,160 offers on IS24/Immowelt/Immonet

The bubblechart shows rental offers clustered by construction year, apartment size and asking rent. Upper limit at 250m² and 30 EUR/m². Select the building year classes to be displayed in the menu.

Offer rents in the districts

Development of asking rents in Berlin over the course of the year. Asking rents are calculated retrospectively for three months at a time.

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+1.70 % 16.65 EUR/m²
+55.30 % 31.60 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+0.90 % 17.95 EUR/m²
+26.50 % 26.20 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+8.30 % 13.00 EUR/m²
+10.80 % 17.95 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
+1.50 % 18.25 EUR/m²
-12.90 % 22.85 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
-3.10 % 11.30 EUR/m²
-8.10 % 15.75 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
+0.10 % 9.25 EUR/m²
+24.40 % 14.95 EUR/m²
Mitte
+8.60 % 22.35 EUR/m²
+33.00 % 30.35 EUR/m²
Moabit
+15.30 % 18.35 EUR/m²
+36.60 % 26.30 EUR/m²
Neukölln
+15.80 % 12.50 EUR/m²
-10.90 % 17.50 EUR/m²
Pankow
+3.40 % 11.65 EUR/m²
-0.20 % 17.15 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
-4.00 % 17.25 EUR/m²
+9.30 % 24.60 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+6.20 % 10.75 EUR/m²
+25.50 % 18.75 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+15.60 % 16.45 EUR/m²
-7.90 % 21.70 EUR/m²
Spandau
+7.30 % 9.00 EUR/m²
+6.80 % 18.10 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+4.80 % 12.55 EUR/m²
+20.20 % 19.95 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
+0.50 % 10.10 EUR/m²
-6.70 % 19.40 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+8.20 % 20.00 EUR/m²
+17.40 % 24.65 EUR/m²
Treptow
-8.90 % 12.05 EUR/m²
+13.50 % 17.45 EUR/m²
Wedding
-3.80 % 12.80 EUR/m²
+1.80 % 20.40 EUR/m²
Weißensee
+1.00 % 14.00 EUR/m²
+20.40 % 21.95 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+10.80 % 18.75 EUR/m²
+17.00 % 26.10 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
+6.60 % 14.10 EUR/m²
-0.70 % 18.15 EUR/m²

Housing in Berlin

Lack of alternatives for households getting smaller leads to blocked trickle-down effects and further exacerbates Berlin's housing problem as aging and shrinking households encounter an empty housing market. Large apartments are under-occupied, small apartments are over-occupied. The housing deficit is not the same in all districts; within the S-Bahn ring, most units are lacking. Information on average household sizes in the boroughs is available from the Bureau of Statistics. Household sizes were last surveyed in the 2011 Census and have been statistically updated since then. Current figures are not published by the Office, so real household sizes in Berlin can only be estimated. We attempt a mathematical approximation by putting the numbers of reported households in relation to the number of apartments. The figures are available at the small-area statistical planning level LOR, which we aggregate to the old districts. The result is the following graph, which shows the excess demand in the districts. By excess demand, we mean the number of apartments that would be needed to meet the statistical household size.

There are almost 330,000 residential buildings in Berlin with about 2 million apartments, the majority of them in multi-storey buildings with 3 or more units. About 1.64 million apartments in Berlin are rented. Around 340,000 units, including apartments in detached and semi-detached houses, are used by the owners themselves. 

Housing Construction in Berlin

The shortage situation on the Berlin housing market cannot only be explained by the influx of new residents. A look at the past shows that the waves of immigration were based on an overhang of demand that was already high. In 2013, there were about 3.470 million registered residents in Berlin. With a statistical household size of 1.76 persons, the arithmetical demand at that time was 1.971 million apartments. The capital was already lacking around 88,600 apartments at that point - and since then Berlin has continued to grow.

Construction map Berlin

Our analyses show the construction completion reports since 2001 (source: Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg). We have aggregated the figures available at LOR level up to the old districts. 

Milieu Protection

Preserved areas according to §172 BauGB (Baugesetzbuch), usually shortened to the term "Milieuschutz" (protection of the milieu), have developed from an original urban planning instrument to a political one. For owners, landlords and sellers, milieu protection is a central issue besides the rent cap. The preservation statutes intervene in almost every phase of a real estate engagement. Many owners are surprised by Milieuschutz, as its development is not transparent. Please also visit our milieu protection section, where you will find an overview of our services. By means of our milieu protection map, you can check whether your property is located in a conservation area according to § 172 BauGB, or in an investigation or observation area. We continuously check all relevant resolutions of the BVV (local parliaments) and update our environmental protection map.

Population

The population structure with migration background in Berlin is very heterogeneous, due to historically divergent developments prior to the reunification. Even today, the international percentage of the population in the western part of the city is almost three times as high as in the eastern districts. Social spatial patterns are recognizable both with regard to the proportion of migrants in the total population of the districts and neighbourhoods and with regard to their origin. In our map, you can filter by nationality and display the proportion of your selection at district and LOR level.

Population mix

The population of Berlin currently consists of about 200 nationalities. In addition to 2,980,886 citizens of German nationality (as of 2020), the German capital is developing its dynamism and cultural diversity in interacting with foreign citizens. The chart shows the composition of the foreign population by nationality.

Migration

Berlin's attractiveness is expressed in the influx of new residents, whose composition is constantly changing. Since the motivation to register with the authorities as an in-migrant is greater than to de-register, population and in-migration figures always show changes. Many people are registered in Berlin without living here, others live here without being registered.

  • All migrations
  • International
  • National
  • Suburban
  • Inland

This report was last updated on 20.05.2022 .

Disclaimer

The Guthmann Market Report is a semi-automated report about the property market in Berlin. All information has been carefully researched and is given to the best of our knowledge and belief. We assume no liability for completeness, deviations, changes and errors. Our report does not represent an investment recommendation.

Sources

Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg: Einwohnerregisterstatistik (Bewegungsdaten), Fortschreibung des Wohngebäude- und Wohnungsbestandes, Ergebnisse des Haushaltegenerierungsverfahren KOSIS-HHGen, Baufertigstellungen. IMV GmbH: Rohdaten Preise und Mieten. Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Wohnen: Umwandlungsdaten (2018), Geoportal Berlin (FIS-Broker). Immobilienverband Deutschland IVD (2018/2019): Immobilienpreisservice 2018/2019.

Methodology

Housing deficit (Treemap): The Statistics Office updates the household data based on the 2011 micro-census. Determination of household count and statistical household size via household generation procedures (KOSIS). We calculate the real household size / housing deficits via the ratio number of inhabitants to number of apartments.
Purchase prices and rents (charts and reports): Calculation of the median on the basis of raw data, own visualization.
Migrations: Aggregation and visualization based on transaction data.

schliessen

Personal Advice

By submitting the form, I agree to the privacy policy of Guthmann Estate GmbH and consent to being contacted.