Berlin Real Estate Report 2023

Berlin property market 2023

Dear readers.

The turnaround in interest rates, inflation and energy shortages has already been going on for a while and the data situation now allows a first assessment for the Berlin real estate market. In recent months, the word "turnaround" has often been used. What may be true for other local housing markets cannot be applied to Berlin as of today. Of course, the German capital is not isolated: interest rates, inflation and the valuation behaviour of banks naturally also affect the market in Berlin. However, as the largest property market in Germany, Berlin tends to behave anti-cyclically and, in addition to the high concentration of supply and demand, benefits from the "capital city bonus" and the overall very international character of the property market. 

On the supply side, according to our analysis of listings from Immoscout, Immowelt and Immonet, asking prices rose by around 4.8 per cent over the year. The development in the 22 old districts is uneven, but with one common element: in the first half of 2022, asking prices rose in almost all locations, before falling back or moving sideways in the second half of the year.  

On the demand side, the mix of higher interest rates, the higher equity requirements and the generally stingy valuation behaviour of the banks plus purchasing power loss makes property purchases more expensive. Prospective buyers are taking more time to assess the situation and are calculating more carefully, also with regard to energy-related cost risks. In the end, there are negotiations. 

If this is the oft-cited new normality, there is no reason to worry, because the finger-wagging between seller and buyer is causing momentum in the market. So actually everything is quite normal, just different.

And what could happen next in 2023? Further interest rate steps by the ECB are considered to be certain, but they will probably be lower. There are also signs that inflation is levelling off. The banks advanced with their interest rates last year and are currently trying to catch up with their customers by offering better conditions. At the same time, the pressure on the rental market continues to increase because housing construction has been notoriously slowed down politically, but also because people who can't afford to buy property at the moment are switching to the rental market.

Waiting to see if prices fall? In Berlin, the moment is always now.

Investors can benefit from the favourable supply situation now and buy with well-negotiated financing before prices rise again more strongly, which is likely to be the case towards the middle of the year. Owners can, for example with us, make a sound assessment of their individual situation and property and also rely on our expertise and visibility when selling. 

Yours, Peter Guthmann
Managing Director

How big is the apartment demand?

This varies widely from district to district. We try a mathematical approximation by calculating a hypothetical deficit via the correlation of household information, residents and housing stock. The method is simple and only serves as a rough estimate. Even though we do not distinguish between the demand for rental or owner-occupied housing, our graph shows in which districts the housing market is tight, and in which districts the excess demand is smaller in purely mathematical terms. In our district reports we break this calculation down to the level of neighbourhoods and districts. According to our method, there is a total shortage of 106,000 flats in Berlin.  

Property prices Berlin: development

Anyone selling a property in Berlin in 2023 will realize good results given the right pricing. The median price per square metre for an apartment in Berlin 10 years ago was just under 2,260 EUR/m², 12 years ago even only 1,670 EUR/m². Today the same property would be offered at a square metre of around 5,510 EUR/m² (median). This corresponds to a profit of around 144.10 % in 10 years, or 230.60 % in 12 years. 

The lower price segment up to EUR 2,500/m² has meanwhile disappeared from the market, while the mid-price segment from 2,500/m² to 5,000/m² continues to melt away. As of 22.03.2023 , the median asking price for properties for sale in Berlin is 5,510 EUR/m², which corresponds to a development of approx. 3.70 % compared to the same period last year. In 12 months, a total of about 30,060 portfolio properties were listed on Immoscout, Immowelt and Immonet.

Over nine months, the trend is 0.30 %, over six months 0.10 % and over three months 0.20 %. Over the course of the year, the number of new weekly listings on the big 3 listing portals is increasing, but without going above the previous year's level.

What is your property worth in Berlin? Find out here.   

Lockdowns, war and interest rate increases lead to visible amplitudes in asking prices. Especially in the last quarter of 2022, more flats were put on the market.   

New building projects stall

Material shortages and cost explosions are slowing down the new construction segment. Rising costs are not being passed on completely to buyers, otherwise there is a threat of a collapse in demand. List prices in new construction are currently around 8,560 EUR/m² in the 3-month period.  The offers are going down. In the last 6 months, about 3,260 Objects have been put on the market. Price increases were only partially enforced. In six months, the adjustment was around 2.00 %. Please also see our district reports for more information on new construction projects in the districts.

List prices for new-build properties have been moving sideways throughout 2022. The number of units brought to the market rose again towards the end of the year after reaching the lowest level in years in April 2022. 

Bird's eye view by year of construction and apartment sizes

The Bubblechart visualizes the sales offers clustered by construction year classes, apartment sizes and offer prices. Upper limit at 350 m² living space and a 15.000 EUR/m². Select the building year classes to be displayed in the menu.

Trend 2023

The European real estate underdog of the 2000s, with run-down stock and dormant neighbourhoods, has long since become a mature, stable, secure and highly attractive real estate market, not least because there have been no extreme swings. Price development in Berlin's housing market has been considerable, but not really speculative. In 2010, the median asking price for flats in Berlin was around 1,600 euros/m², which was not even remotely close to the prices per square metre in Paris, Rome, Madrid or London, despite the fact that the financial crisis had only begun to be recovered at that time. But even after the catch-up effects have faded, Berlin continues to enjoy the confidence of investors as a place-to-be. The German capital is becoming increasingly modern and international. Until well into the 2030s, experts say, demand will exceed supply.

After the pandemic dip, the number of new residents is rising again

It is already foreseeable that the long-term demand situation in Berlin is stronger than crisis-related fluctuations and interest rates. The official urban development forecast predicts almost 4 million people in Berlin by 2040, which makes residential investment in Berlin a safe and low-risk asset class. 

In addition, investors are currently turning away from smaller regional markets and focusing their interest on Berlin as a location with proof of concept. Rented flats in the capital are considered an investment that remains tradable at all times within a high price corridor.

The broad spectrum of regulation has turned short-term buy-and-sell strategies into sustainable and long-term commitments. Here, Berlin benefits from the fact that the supreme courts have overturned the regulatory extremes of rent cap and preemption practice. 

Berlin's transformation into one of Europe's hottest metropolises is in full swing. The creative metropolis has become a start-up hub that has now established itself as an important player in the research and science sector. With Adlershof, WISTA, the emerging Siemens Campus and the future Urban Tech Republik at the former Tegel Airport, Berlin leaves no doubt about its orientation towards the knowledge economy.

More listing, higher competition

More offers, increased competition
The number of property offers is increasing. Our analysis shows all existing properties on offer by price segment and calendar week, adjusted for offers that have already been on the market for longer than 12 weeks. It becomes clear that the competitive pressure among the listed properties will continue to increase. Increased supply, interest rates and recession concerns must be taken into account in pricing in the first two quarters of 2023.

Property markets in Berlin's districts

All 22 Berlin districts regionally delimited and at a glance: Price development of the last 12 months.

Rental Housing Market in Berlin

Residential housing built up to 2015 is currently being offered at a median rent of around 15.00 EUR/m², which, as of 22.03.2023 , corresponds to a development of around 16.00 % in 12 months. In 5 years, the increase in asking rents in the stock is approx. 40.60 %.  

Rents in new buildings

Offer rents currently average around 21.70 EUR/m², representing a year-over-year price adjustment of about 4.10 %, based on 3,150 Offers in 12 months. Within the last 5 years, the cold rents in new construction thus developed by about 48.30 %.

Price index rents Berlin

As of 22.03.2023 , median asking rents existing and new buildings.

Cluster of rental offers

The Bubblechart visualizes the rental offers of 12 months clustered by construction year classes, apartment sizes and offer rents. Select the construction year classes to be displayed in the menu. 

Rent listings in the districts

Development of asking rents in Berlin over the course of the year. 

Housing in Berlin

Lack of alternatives for households getting smaller leads to blocked trickle-down effects and further exacerbates Berlin's housing problem as aging and shrinking households encounter an empty housing market. Large apartments are under-occupied, small apartments are over-occupied. The housing deficit is not the same in all districts; within the S-Bahn ring, most units are lacking. Information on average household sizes in the boroughs is available from the Bureau of Statistics. Household sizes were last surveyed in the 2011 Census and have been statistically updated since then. Current figures are not published by the Office, so real household sizes in Berlin can only be estimated. We attempt a mathematical approximation by putting the numbers of reported households in relation to the number of apartments. The figures are available at the small-area statistical planning level LOR, which we aggregate to the old districts. The result is the following graph, which shows the excess demand in the districts. By excess demand, we mean the number of apartments that would be needed to meet the statistical household size.

There are almost 330,000 residential buildings in Berlin with about 2 million apartments, the majority of them in multi-storey buildings with 3 or more units. About 1.64 million apartments in Berlin are rented. Around 340,000 units, including apartments in detached and semi-detached houses, are used by the owners themselves. 

Housing Construction in Berlin

The shortage situation on the Berlin housing market cannot only be explained by the influx of new residents. A look at the past shows that the waves of immigration were based on an overhang of demand that was already high. In 2013, there were about 3.470 million registered residents in Berlin. With a statistical household size of 1.76 persons, the arithmetical demand at that time was 1.971 million apartments. The capital was already lacking around 88,600 apartments at that point - and since then Berlin has continued to grow.

Construction map Berlin

Our analyses show the construction completion reports since 2001 (source: Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg). We have aggregated the figures available at LOR level up to the old districts. 

Milieu Protection

Preserved areas according to §172 BauGB (Baugesetzbuch), usually shortened to the term "Milieuschutz" (protection of the milieu), have developed from an original urban planning instrument to a political one. For owners, landlords and sellers, milieu protection is a central issue besides the rent cap. The preservation statutes intervene in almost every phase of a real estate engagement. Many owners are surprised by Milieuschutz, as its development is not transparent. Please also visit our milieu protection section, where you will find an overview of our services. By means of our milieu protection map, you can check whether your property is located in a conservation area according to § 172 BauGB, or in an investigation or observation area. We continuously check all relevant resolutions of the BVV (local parliaments) and update our environmental protection map.

Population

The population structure with migration background in Berlin is very heterogeneous, due to historically divergent developments prior to the reunification. Even today, the international percentage of the population in the western part of the city is almost three times as high as in the eastern districts. Social spatial patterns are recognizable both with regard to the proportion of migrants in the total population of the districts and neighbourhoods and with regard to their origin. In our map, you can filter by nationality and display the proportion of your selection at district and LOR level.

Population mix

The population of Berlin currently consists of about 200 nationalities. In addition to 2,980,886 citizens of German nationality (as of 2020), the German capital is developing its dynamism and cultural diversity in interacting with foreign citizens. The chart shows the composition of the foreign population by nationality.

Migration

Berlin's attractiveness is expressed in the influx of new residents, whose composition is constantly changing. Since the motivation to register with the authorities as an in-migrant is greater than to de-register, population and in-migration figures always show changes. Many people are registered in Berlin without living here, others live here without being registered.