Update: 23.07.2024

Berlin Real Estate Market Report
H2
2024

After the first interest rate cut in 2024, the ECB has put the brakes on again. Nevertheless, those who buy now will find almost ideal conditions. Rising yields, lower purchase prices, and more supply. As of 23.07.2024 , the 12-month development is still at -1.70 %, but the shorter the period, the flatter the slowdown. Over 3 months, we measure an increase of 1.50 %. Asking rents in Berlin have increased by about 6.60 % over 12 months.

Find all data, facts, and insights about the Berlin real estate market here.

Assessing the Berlin Real Estate Market. What is a True Turnaround?

Dear Readers,

Following the recent ECB rate pause, many experts believe that the turnaround in the real estate market will take some time. But which turnaround? The often well-founded assessments of consulting firms, institutes, and banks often leave it unclear what kind of crisis everyone is talking about. One turnaround could be when interest rates fall again. Another could be when prices rise again and remain positive. A further scenario is that transactions significantly increase despite slightly higher interest rates. Or are we waiting for the mega turnaround, where interest rates drop, purchase prices rise, and the market picks up again?

We consider it rather unlikely that the next normal will be the old one. Rather, the situation needs to be reassessed. One thing seems clear: Prices are not our problem. Looking at the notarized purchase prices of the last 12 years, it becomes evident that with around 144 percent value growth, it is hardly possible to speak of a price crisis. With these figures, especially in combination with the security of real estate, no ETF or other financial market product can compete, despite occasionally comparable returns, since the fluctuations in the real estate market are not comparable to those in the stock market.

If stability is a problem, then we have a big problem.

Year after year, real estate prices in Berlin have risen from 2011 to 2022, and with the exception of 2015 and 2020, always in double digits. This is evidenced by the figures from the Berlin Expert Committee, which are available to us in aggregated form for these periods.

Yearly price development since 2011

Status Quo

The 12-month development is -1.70 % percent. In the last quarter, prices rose slightly by 1.50 %.

The market for residential and commercial properties in Berlin is revitalizing, with more listings and transactions at recently lower prices. Investors currently find very attractive options.

Take advantage of the current sweet spot. The mix of falling prices, rising rents, scarcity, and population growth offers opportunities for investors and owner-occupiers.

Yours sincerely,
Peter Guthmann

Overview: Current Market Development by District

The offering price range for existing apartments in Berlin ranges from approximately 3,700 to 8,100 EUR/m². The highest prices are in Mitte, followed by Tiergarten, Prenzlauer Berg, Kreuzberg, and Wilmersdorf. The most affordable apartments are in Marzahn-Hellersdorf and Spandau. A similar picture emerges in new construction, where Mitte, Zehlendorf, and Prenzlauer Berg have the highest prices. The highest average rents for existing apartments are demanded in Charlottenburg. For new apartments, micro-apartments in Köpenick are the most expensive, followed by Mitte and Tiergarten.

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+2.00 % 6,220 EUR/m²
+3.20 % 11,000 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
-1.20 % 6,020 EUR/m²
-1.30 % 9,110 EUR/m²
Köpenick
-2.30 % 4,820 EUR/m²
-6.30 % 7,280 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
-9.10 % 6,270 EUR/m²
-4.20 % 10,150 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
+2.70 % 4,690 EUR/m²
+10.20 % 7,160 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
-16.50 % 3,660 EUR/m²
+8.70 % 5,700 EUR/m²
Mitte
-2.00 % 8,220 EUR/m²
-1.10 % 13,890 EUR/m²
Moabit
+3.90 % 5,350 EUR/m²
+5.80 % 9,280 EUR/m²
Neukölln
-5.70 % 4,650 EUR/m²
+11.50 % 8,670 EUR/m²
Pankow
-6.10 % 4,700 EUR/m²
-6.50 % 7,030 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
-4.10 % 6,760 EUR/m²
-3.80 % 11,000 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
-3.50 % 4,250 EUR/m²
-4.60 % 7,180 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+1.30 % 5,940 EUR/m²
+0.10 % 10,260 EUR/m²
Spandau
-3.00 % 3,970 EUR/m²
+10.20 % 6,620 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+0.50 % 4,850 EUR/m²
-3.80 % 7,850 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
+0.50 % 4,400 EUR/m²
+0.90 % 6,430 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
-4.30 % 8,160 EUR/m²
-14.40 % 9,620 EUR/m²
Treptow
-1.70 % 4,190 EUR/m²
+1.60 % 6,510 EUR/m²
Wedding
-2.90 % 4,500 EUR/m²
-2.50 % 7,500 EUR/m²
Weißensee
-7.70 % 4,710 EUR/m²
-0.60 % 8,480 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
-0.30 % 6,590 EUR/m²
-14.80 % 9,630 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
-6.20 % 5,450 EUR/m²
+12.70 % 11,270 EUR/m²

Existing Properties

The market for existing properties in Berlin has experienced continuous growth over the past twelve years. Factors such as a prolonged period of low interest rates, a substantial influx of new residents, attractive catch-up potential, and a significant housing deficit have driven the market upward in recent years. Twelve years ago, the median price per square meter for an apartment in Berlin was approximately 2,030 EUR/m² EUR. Today, comparable properties demand around 5,430 EUR/m² EUR, representing a value increase of about more than 145% percent over this period.

Owners who financed property purchases ten years ago did not benefit from the low interest rates that only fell below the 2 percent mark in 2016. Those requiring follow-up financing in 2024 for a purchase made in 2014 can currently finance at similar or slightly worse conditions. Loans with a 5-year term are presently more expensive than those with a 10-year fixed interest rate, indicating that banks also anticipate falling interest rates.

Certified Average Values for Existing Properties in 2022 and 2023

District Mitte Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg Pankow Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf Spandau Steglitz-Zehlendorf Tempelhof-Schöneberg Neukölln Treptow-Köpenick Marzahn-Hellersdorf Lichtenberg Reinickendorf Berlin
2022 Average
Sale Price EUR/m²
5.976 6.024 5.933 6.169 3.595 5.092 4.917 4.923 4.231 3.733 4.403 4.128 5.344
2023 Average
Sale Price EUR/m²
5.844 5.844 5.623 5.906 3.457 4.793 4.699 4.653 4.179 3.503 4.382 3.994 5.105
Difference -2% -3% -5% -4% -4% -6% -4% -5% -1% -6% 0% -3% -4%
2022 No.
Transactions
1.258 1.266 1.238 1.565 464 1.037 1.239 748 551 142 317 512 10.337
2023 No.
Transactions
974 1.044 884 1.144 390 797 931 661 447 108 307 436 8.123
Difference -23% -18% -29% -27% -16% -23% -25% -12% -19% -24% -3% -15% -21%

Berlin's Housing Stock in 2024: Opportunities for Investors

In 2024, Berlin's housing stock offers highly attractive investment opportunities. Following a period of consolidation, there are strong indications of a rapid market revival. Given moderate purchase prices and the prospect of rising rents, investors can anticipate substantial value appreciation and increasing rental yields within standard financing periods. 

Price Index Berlin

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 5,430 EUR/m² - 8,530 EUR/m² -
1 Year 5,520 EUR/m² -1.70 % 8,230 EUR/m² 3.70 %
3 Years 5,130 EUR/m² 5.80 % 7,390 EUR/m² 15.40 %
5 Years 4,490 EUR/m² 21.00 % 6,260 EUR/m² 36.30 %
10 Years 2,580 EUR/m² 110.80 % 3,710 EUR/m² 130.20 %

Market Currently Driven by ECB

In Berlin, property purchase prices have fluctuated seasonally over many years at most. By mid-2022, there was a decline in prices for the first time in a long time. The further course in the second quarter of 2024 will be influenced by the ECB's interest rate decisions.

Longer Marketing Periods and Increased number of Listings

The Berlin real estate market for existing properties is divided into three main segments. The price corrections in 2022 and 2023 have strengthened the lower price segment. At the same time, marketing times have lengthened, leading to an increased supply. The table below shows the development of the average marketing time for property listings on ImmoScout24, Immowelt, and classified ads.

Time on Market 2019 - 2023

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ø Weeks on Market 16.1 15.8 17.1 13.9 19.4

Market Clusters by Year of Construction and Apartment Sizes

The color spots illustrate the purchase offers clustered by year of construction, apartment sizes, and asking prices. The upper limit is 350 m² of living space and 15,000 EUR/m². It has been hidden for better readability of the rest of the market up to 250 m² of living space.

New Constructions

Is New Construction in Berlin Set for a Recovery?

The past 24 months have been challenging for the new construction sector. We have analyzed sales contracts, price lists and actually realized sales prices. The average notarized price per square meter has remained constant. In 2022, 2,063 units were sold, in 2023 the number went down to only 1,029 units. In, In the first quarter of 2024, we have identified approximately 280 new apartment listings, indicating a potential recovery in the segment.

Certified Average Values for New Construction Properties in 2022 and 2023

District Mitte Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg Pankow Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf Spandau Steglitz-Zehlendorf Tempelhof-Schöneberg Neukölln Treptow-Köpenick Marzahn-Hellersdorf Lichtenberg Reinickendorf Berlin
2022 Average
Sales Prices EUR/m²
10.764 8.908 7.231 9.873 6.561 7.782 8.970 7.318 8.043 5.240 6.399 7.069 7.922
2023 Average
Sales Prices EUR/m²
10.329 9.872 7.027 11.297 6.364 9.030 7.437 5.687 8.435 4.840 6.132 6.096 7.919
Difference -4% 11% -3% 14% -3% 16% -17% -22% 5% -8% -4% -14% 0%
2022 No. Transactions 108 205 362 153 126 52 216 7 465 115 198 56 2.063
2023 No. Transactions 52 124 123 43 69 32 83 8 290 42 111 52 1.029
Difference -52% -40% -66% -72% -45% -38% -62% 14% -38% -63% -44% -7% -50%

Development, Dynamics, and East-West Differences

In Berlin, only about one in six residents (16%) lives in their own home, one of the lowest rates of homeownership in all of Germany. However, more and more tenants want to break away from the competition for rentals and acquire their own property. Purchasing an existing rental apartment presents a viable alternative to the more expensive new construction, with the significant advantage of being able to continue living in the familiar environment. Although the Berlin constitution fundamentally supports the creation of homeownership, regulations such as the division prohibition and Milieuschutz introduce new obstacles.

On the right side of the graphic, the conversions of apartments in Berlin since 2011 are illustrated, while the left side shows new construction activities.

Less Sales Due to Rising Costs and Interest Rates

**For many buyers, higher equity requirements and high interest rates are obstacles, despite stable and sometimes slightly decreased purchase prices in new construction. In recent years, price increases have been less due to margins and more due to more expensive land and higher planning and construction costs. Ten years ago, the average listing price per square meter for a new apartment in Berlin was 3,710 EUR/m²; currently, it stands at 8,530 EUR/m², which is almost 130.20 % percent higher.

Current Discussion, Planning, and Construction Activities in Berlin

What projects are currently being discussed, planned, or are already underway? Our map shows the current status of construction activity in Berlin. Is your project not included? Please contact us with information.

We have identified and classified numerous residential construction projects from various sources. Our overview map presents these projects, categorized by their development stage and with information on the number of planned housing units. It provides a quick view of whether a project is in the discussion, planning, or construction phase. In total, over 330 projects of various sizes have been recorded throughout the city of Berlin. Approximately one-third of these projects are currently in the discussion or preliminary planning stage, while around 130 are in the active construction phase.

Rental Housing Market Berlin

The development of the rental market in the German capital is influenced by migration, population growth, ownership rates, monetary policy, geopolitical crises, and housing policy. Over the last 20 years, Berlin has undergone many transformations. Internal migration and international arrivals met a market with relatively low rents, leading to decreased vacancies and rising rents after the turn of the millennium. The population increased, and districts became vibrant neighborhoods. Political measures focused on capping existing rents rather than on new construction, leading to a shortage of supply. The failed rent cap exacerbated this shortage, resulting in more rental properties being removed from the market and either sold or converted into temporarily rented, furnished apartments.

Status Quo

The rental market situation remains tense. Current market dynamics and the interest rate environment continue to put pressure on the already limited supply. Rising financing costs and higher equity requirements make purchasing a home more expensive, leading to increased demand in the rental sector. Additionally, the growing fragmentation of the rental market is making it more difficult to find housing.

  1. According to the 2023 "Mietspiegel" (rent index), the average rent for existing apartments in Berlin is 7.16 euros per square meter. The validity of this value is highly controversial. With the introduction of a qualified rent index in 2024, an increase in the average rent level of at least 10 percent is expected.
  2. In the standard rental market below 20 EUR/m², our calculations show the average rent in the current quarter is 14.40 EUR/m². The increase compared to the same period last year is about 6.60 %.
  3. Rents for new apartments and temporary rentals are currently averaging 23.45 EUR/m².

Rent Index Berlin

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 14.40 EUR/m² - 23.45 EUR/m² -
1 Year 13.50 EUR/m² 6.60 % 24.90 EUR/m² -5.90 %
3 Years 12.85 EUR/m² 12.00 % 19.95 EUR/m² 17.60 %
5 Years 11.00 EUR/m² 30.70 % 16.15 EUR/m² 45.30 %

How Big is Housing Shortage?

Determining the exact extent of the housing shortage in Berlin is challenging. However, comparing household numbers with housing stocks reveals the pressure in the local housing market. The "Treemap" exposes another fundamental problem of the scarce rental housing market through the calculated household size: The lack of alternatives for shrinking households leads to blocked trickle-down effects and exacerbates the housing issue because aging households cannot downsize. This results in large apartments being under-occupied and small apartments being over-occupied.

The Treemap displays the aggregated situation in the districts. Clicking on the districts takes you to the neighborhood level, and the back button returns you to the overall view. The red-green scale quantitatively shows the need, and the size of the boxes corresponds to the size of the local housing markets.

According to this method, there is a total housing deficit of approximately 112,000 units with a decreasing pressure from west to east. Some districts in East Berlin theoretically even have low fluctuation reserves. In the districts of Pankow, Köpenick, and Marzahn-Hellersdorf, the housing market is almost balanced, except for some neighborhoods.

More Housing by Deregulation

Is Berlin's acute housing problem characterized not only by a physical shortage but also by a high number of non-market active apartments? Survey results from the years 2011 (Census) and 2018 (Microcensus) indicate that the vacancy rate in the city might be higher than officially assumed. The 2022 Census vacancy figures are not yet available but may provide insights into this issue.

While the statistics from the Census and Microcensus provide imprecise figures, Berlin's extensive rent regulation evidently removes thousands of units from the rental market by economically pushing owners towards selling or furnished renting. Relaxing legal regulations, such as reverting to a nationwide 20 percent capping limit or issuing a real "Mietspiegel" (rent index), could invigorate the housing market and improve the availability of apartments.

Statistical vacancy rate by districts

 Apartments Vacant / No rented Vacancy Rate
Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 145.673 4.339 2,98%
Pankow 208.078 6.196 2,98%
Neukölln 161.694 5.735 3,55%
Treptow-Köpenick 131.501 3.586 2,73%
Marzahn-Hellersdorf 131.654 5.440 4,13%
Lichtenberg 144.971 4.694 3,24%
Reinickendorf 128.875 5.923 4,60%
Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf 181.166 5.985 3,30%
Spandau 116.975 5.210 4,45%
Steglitz-Zehlendorf 153.798 5.780 3,76%
Tempelhof-Schöneberg 180.002 5.949 3,30%
Source: Statistik Berlin Brandenburg, Zensus 2011

Rents for New Construction Units

The asking rents for new-build flats in Berlin currently average around 27.10 EUR/m², which corresponds to a price adjustment of around (Konnte keine Ergebnisse erhalten) compared to the same period last year. In 5 years, rents in new builds have thus increased by around (Konnte keine Ergebnisse erhalten)

Clustering of rental offers by year of construction and flat size (12 months)

The diagram visualises the rental offers clustered by year of construction classes, flat sizes and asking rents. Select the year of construction classes to be displayed in the menu. Status 23.07.2024 , median asking rents for existing and new builds.

Average Asking Rents by Districts

Development of asking rents in Berlin's districts. The asking rents are calculated retrospectively for three months in each case. Capping for existing properties at EUR 20/m². 

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+8.30 % 19.90 EUR/m²
-10.90 % 25.70 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+3.90 % 14.00 EUR/m²
-5.80 % 26.00 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+5.90 % 13.30 EUR/m²
+1.50 % 19.50 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
+4.30 % 15.55 EUR/m²
+4.50 % 28.25 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
+12.20 % 13.05 EUR/m²
-19.10 % 20.15 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
-6.40 % 10.00 EUR/m²
-0.30 % 19.95 EUR/m²
Mitte
+1.80 % 21.90 EUR/m²
-10.10 % 30.35 EUR/m²
Moabit
+8.60 % 15.10 EUR/m²
-29.50 % 25.85 EUR/m²
Neukölln
-1.80 % 10.95 EUR/m²
-6.90 % 21.90 EUR/m²
Pankow
+6.40 % 12.90 EUR/m²
-10.20 % 21.40 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
-4.70 % 15.60 EUR/m²
-3.80 % 25.00 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+1.00 % 11.70 EUR/m²
-2.50 % 20.50 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
-5.00 % 13.95 EUR/m²
-11.70 % 23.15 EUR/m²
Spandau
+12.10 % 12.20 EUR/m²
-4.20 % 17.90 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+4.60 % 14.05 EUR/m²
-14.00 % 21.85 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
+14.90 % 11.80 EUR/m²
+10.40 % 21.40 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
-0.70 % 19.85 EUR/m²
-7.40 % 30.00 EUR/m²
Treptow
+22.90 % 14.25 EUR/m²
-6.80 % 21.25 EUR/m²
Wedding
+9.40 % 12.55 EUR/m²
-4.80 % 25.45 EUR/m²
Weißensee
+5.00 % 14.20 EUR/m²
-17.10 % 22.75 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+5.90 % 18.85 EUR/m²
-11.90 % 26.75 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
+13.10 % 15.90 EUR/m²
-38.40 % 20.30 EUR/m²

Building Blocks

In the second quarter of the current year 2024, the consolidated Berlin rental property market is gaining momentum again. Last year, according to the Berlin Valuation Committee, there were a total of 588 sales of residential and commercial buildings. The average multiplier is currently estimated at just over 25, and the average price per square meter is 2,673 euros. However, not all locations and construction years react in the same way to high interest rates and energy aspects. We would be happy to advise you on this. You can find all relevant information in our rental property report in advance.

Market Dynamics and Price development

After prices for rental buildings in Berlin have risen across the board in recent years, there is currently a greater differentiation according to location and quality. This is shown by our evaluation with data from the Berlin Valuation Committee, with which we have determined the average price level and price range for the 22 old Berlin districts. Across the entire city of Berlin, the average closing for residential and commercial buildings was 2,189 EUR/m² of relevant floor space.

After prices for apartment buildings in Berlin have risen across the entire city in recent years, there is currently a greater differentiation by location and quality. We have used data from the Berlin Expert Committee to determine the average price level and price ranges for the 22 old districts of Berlin. Across Berlin as a whole, the average asking price for residential and commercial properties was 2,189 EUR/m² of value-relevant floor space. 

Price Ranges by Districts

Year Mitte Tiergarten Wedding Prenzlauer Berg Friedrichshain Kreuzberg Charlottenburg Spandau Wilmersdorf Zehlendorf Schöneberg Steglitz Tempelhof Neukölln Treptow Köpenick Lichtenberg Weißensee Pankow Reinickendorf Marzahn Hohenschönhausen Hellersdorf Jahr
2018 1.267 bis 5.247 1.255 bis 4.447 950 bis 3.004 1.582 bis 3.510 888 bis 5.793 1.165 bis 5.655 1.350 bis 6.401 301 bis 11.919 1.048 bis 5.366 1.526 bis 7.453 1.068 bis 3.089 1.065 bis 3.687 983 bis 2.817 695 bis 4.849 1.062 bis 3.873 1.081 bis 2.066 844 bis 4.840 805 bis 2.379 468 bis 4.652 570 bis 5.695 1.350 bis 2.959 500 bis 2.097 857 bis 2.320 2018
2019 1.208 bis 6.168 1.425 bis 3.647 874 bis 3.154 1.461 bis 4.964 1.395 bis 3.404 1.082 bis 4.197 1.423 bis 11.340 606 bis 3.192 1.601 bis 9.143 2.446 bis 5.173 1.314 bis 3.917 1.164 bis 4.071 862 bis 5.997 1.032 bis 2.941 1.318 bis 2.656 1.579 bis 2.650 698 bis 4.630 1.000 bis 3.376 671 bis 3.090 396 bis 4.839 1.018 bis 2.339 1.382 bis 2.028 846 bis 3.858 2019
2020 1.594 bis 8.481 1.454 bis 2.811 1.003 bis 4.084 1.310 bis 3.280 1.248 bis 3.284 1.424 bis 4.894 1.364 bis 6.181 431 bis 5.758 1.151 bis 10.526 3.230 bis 4.837 1.363 bis 4.841 1.637 bis 3.183 770 bis 4.909 592 bis 4.392 986 bis 4.069 930 bis 5.683 1.230 bis 5.748 1.126 bis 4.594 895 bis 2.819 654 bis 5.248 1.589 bis 3.255 1.729 bis 2.307 1.495 bis 3.090 2020
2021 1.603 bis 8.475 1.106 bis 3.422 841 bis 5.446 1.436 bis 6.835 1.314 bis 6.696 1.167 bis 4.264 1.570 bis 16.262 841 bis 4.633 1.596 bis 7.347 2.560 bis 6.944 1.625 bis 7.047 1.489 bis 5.253 1.125 bis 4.644 896 bis 6.326 1.794 bis 5.217 984 bis 5.812 1.142 bis 4.960 1.390 bis 3.167 1.109 bis 6.111 601 bis 3.873 2.006 bis 3.012 1.525 bis 4.482 1.248 bis 3.389 2021
2022 1.489 bis 16.844 1.193 bis 3.702 1.358 bis 3.867 347 bis 7.736 458 bis 3.141 862 bis 5.068 1.707 bis 6.579 472 bis 6.013 874 bis 7.043 1.976 bis 3.897 1.735 bis 4.707 1.799 bis 3.821 1.232 bis 3.670 824 bis 4.515 1.467 bis 2.931 1.716 bis 3.999 287 bis 6.116 1.691 bis 3.186 1.421 bis 5.626 954 bis 5.094 2.195 bis 2.733 1.081 bis 2.150 1.717 bis 4.312 2022
2023 2.158 bis 5.777 1.475 bis 1.750 919 bis 2.467 1.167 bis 2.964 1.374 bis 2.844 911 bis 6.567 1.093 bis 3.870 1.003 bis 4.608 203 bis 6.024 - 1.339 bis 1.993 1.827 bis 2.082 1.252 bis 2.570 886 bis 5.285 - 2.302 bis 3.520 357 bis 2.538 1.247 bis 5.177 1.424 bis 4.083 909 bis 4.065 1.266 bis 4.667 1.572 bis 3.585 1.425 bis 2.523 2023
Quelle: Gutachterausschuss Berlin, eigene Anfrage

Multipliers lower than before

The multiplier or factor is a measure that indicates the ratio of the purchase price of a property to the annual net cold rent. It shows how many years it would take for the purchase of the property to be amortized through rental income. The formula for this is: Factor = Purchase price / annual net cold rent. Due to the increased interest rates in 2023, the profitability of an investment in real estate has decreased. In this situation, investors increasingly base their decisions on a combination of location quality, the condition of the property, and its development potential. In 2023, the multiplier initially dropped significantly but has since stabilized.

Listings

It is generally not advisable to advertise an apartment building for sale openly on real estate listing sites. Many of these offers are difficult to sell, either because the asking price is too high or for other reasons. In addition, the asking price on property exchanges often does not reflect the actual market value. Nevertheless, we would like to show the development of apartment blocks offered on property exchanges in recent years. Our analysis reveals two key findings: Firstly, that the asking price is declining, and secondly, that although the number of openly offered properties has fallen considerably recently, it is still high in terms of overall turnover on the Berlin apartment block market. If you need support in getting out of the sales impasse of your property, please do not hesitate to contact us. We will develop an effective sales concept for your property.

Real Estate Market: Trends for 2024

After prices in almost all districts have fallen for about 20 months, they are now stabilizing at a lower level and are already showing slight increases in some districts. Rising rents and the assumption that the ECB will cut the key interest rate at least once in 2024 contribute to this stabilization. Banks are already calculating with falling construction interest rates, also considering the development of covered bonds and government bonds.

  • The rental level remains high for the foreseeable future and will continue to rise.
  • Investors with high liquidity currently dominate the market.
  • Energy efficiency, overall condition, and location are crucial criteria.
  • A recovery in the new construction sector is expected from the second half of 2024.

European Central Bank Holds Rates Steady, Signals Peak in Interest Rate Cycle

In a series of ten adjustments, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the benchmark interest rate to 4.50 percent and is now (as of February 2024) entering its third consecutive interest rate pause. The last time the benchmark interest rate in the Eurozone was near this level was in the summer of 2008, amid the international economic crisis, at 4.25 percent, slightly below the current rate. About six months later, the ECB began to lower the rate in several steps. Economists are increasingly of the opinion that the interest rate adjustment of September 14, 2023, marked the peak.

The projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the ECB regarding the potential further course of inflation are closely aligned. The ECB anticipates that inflation will decrease steadily but slowly over the coming years. Against the backdrop of decreasing cost pressure and the ECB's monetary policy, inflation is expected to fall to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, potentially reaching 1.9% in 2026. According to these projections, inflation would return to the target corridor of just over 2 percent by 2025. Recently, mortgage rates have decreased by up to 1.2 percent for ten-year terms.

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Newsletter and listings

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This report was last updated on 23.07.2024 .

Disclaimer

The Guthmann Market Report is a semi-automated report about the property market in Berlin. All information has been carefully researched and is given to the best of our knowledge and belief. We assume no liability for completeness, deviations, changes and errors. Our report does not represent an investment recommendation.

Sources

Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg: Einwohnerregisterstatistik (Bewegungsdaten), Fortschreibung des Wohngebäude- und Wohnungsbestandes, Ergebnisse des Haushaltegenerierungsverfahren KOSIS-HHGen, Baufertigstellungen. IMV GmbH: Rohdaten Preise und Mieten. Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Wohnen: Umwandlungsdaten (2018), Geoportal Berlin (FIS-Broker). Immobilienverband Deutschland IVD (2018/2019): Immobilienpreisservice 2018/2019.

Methodology

Housing deficit (Treemap): The Statistics Office updates the household data based on the 2011 micro-census. Determination of household count and statistical household size via household generation procedures (KOSIS). We calculate the real household size / housing deficits via the ratio number of inhabitants to number of apartments.
Purchase prices and rents (charts and reports): Calculation of the median on the basis of raw data, own visualization.
Migrations: Aggregation and visualization based on transaction data.

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