Last update: 05.10.2022

Berlin Real Estate Report 2022

Market conditions in Berlin are changing. Our market reports provide you with accurate, weekly updated and comprehensive insights and data. We offer strategies for your investments. 

 

Berlin property market: (no) business as usual

Dear Readers.

Property prices in Berlin continue to rise, despite higher interest rates, inflation and a general mood of crisis? 

Yes.

So it's business as usual in the capital's housing market? 

No.

With key interest rate increases, inflation, a shortage of raw materials and sharply rising ancillary housing costs, long-forgotten price-forming factors are experiencing a revival. There are a number of reasons why prices continue to rise. While the distrust of buyers, whether owner-occupiers or investors, in other local real estate markets is growing, Berlin is playing to its strengths in the midst of the crises. The list is long: capital city market, international in character, huge demand with little supply, plenty of inventory, and, thanks to our reports, pretty good documentation.

Overall, the housing market in Berlin is not immune, but it is certainly very resilient. Nevertheless, the shakes can be felt here as well. For example, we are recently measuring increasingly large price fluctuations after years of an almost linear price curve. And not all local housing markets in Berlin, which means the districts, neighborhoods and blocks, will manage to avoid corrections. As of 05.10.2022 , we can state that the trend across the entire Berlin urban area is a locally differentiated but overall sustained price growth.

Anyone who bought an apartment in the capital 10 years ago paid a median price per square meter of just under 2,120 EUR/m² and 12 years ago even only 1,590 EUR/m². As of 05.10.2022 , the same apartment would be offered at a median price per square meter of around 5,500 EUR/m². This corresponds to an increase in value of around 159.60 % in 10 years, or 245.10 % in 12 years. 

Within a wide profit margin, temporary cycle corrections can thus be bridged with low risk. Those who want to seize the opportunity and sell will realize excellent results with the right price. 

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 5,500 EUR/m² - 8,540 EUR/m² -
1 Year 5,150 EUR/m² 6.90 % 7,940 EUR/m² 7.50 %
3 Years 4,610 EUR/m² 19.40 % 6,380 EUR/m² 33.90 %
5 Years 3,680 EUR/m² 49.60 % 5,600 EUR/m² 52.40 %
10 Years 2,120 EUR/m² 159.60 % 3,420 EUR/m² 149.80 %
Data basis: IS24, Immowelt, Immonet offers, period: 01.09.2022 - 3 months, percentage changes compared with prior-year period

Demand will continue to outstrip supply until at least the mid-2030s, experts say

The European underdog with a large supply of run-down stock and dormant neighbourhoods has become a sophisticated, stable, secure and still highly attractive real estate market, partly because extreme swings have not occurred. The price development in Berlin was considerable, but not speculative. Unlike some swarm cities, where buying interest is waning, Berlin continues to enjoy the confidence of investors as a place-to-be. The capital is becoming better, more modern and more international with each passing day. Demand will exceed supply until deep into the 2030s.

Housing demand not the same everywhere

The theoretical demand for housing varies widely from district to district. We try an approximation here using data from the Office of Statistics and the population register. Using the correlation of household information, residents, and housing stock, we calculate a hypothetical deficit. Even though many parameters such as the question of the typology of rental apartments or condominiums, or the different demand markets are not taken into account here, our chart shows in which districts the housing market and thus also the real estate market is tight, and where this is less the case. 

Click for method

The Office of Statistics uses statistical procedures (HHGen, Kosis) and population register data to extrapolate the number of households and household sizes from the 2011 Census. One result is the statistical household size, which is calculated from the ratio of residents to registered households.  

To get an approximation of the housing deficit in Berlin, the districts, and the neighborhoods, we determine the ACTUAL household size by dividing residents by dwellings. We determine the purely hypothetical housing deficit by subtracting the existing housing stock from households. For us, an ideal ratio exists when there is one dwelling for every household. Parameters such as turnover stock and household agglomerations such as shared housing are not taken into account. We set the deficit in relation to the housing stock. We show the determined percentage value on a red-green color scale. Red means high deficit, green means balanced ratio.

We perform the calculations at the level of the LOR statistical planning areas, which we combine to form old districts. 

Price trends in Berlin

Real estate prices in Berlin have risen constantly for around 12 years, for a long time in the double-digit range. The meltdown of the overall supply as well as the lower and middle price segments can be seen clearly. 

As of 05.10.2022 , the median asking price for buy-to-let properties in Berlin as computed by us is about 5,500 EUR/m², which corresponds to a development of about 6.90 % compared to the same period a year ago.  Thus, asking prices are rising at a slightly slower pace than before, but still noticeably. In 12 months, in the existing segment, about 26,850 Apartments were offered on the main listing platforms (Scout, Immowelt, Immonet). 

Over nine months, the trend is 4.80 %, and over six months it is 2.80 %. Over the course of the year, the number of weekly new insertions increases. This indicates that the trend in prices is leveling off, but not homogeneously across all districts. While some locations are prospering, sellers' price expectations are not always met in other trendy locations. 

Corona lockdowns, Ukraine war and interest rate increases lead to wider amplitudes in the price structure.  

The number of apartments on offer in Berlin increases slightly over the course of 2022, without the development noticeably exceeding normal seasonal fluctuations. Viewed over several years, a sharp reduction in the supply of apartments in Berlin can be observed. 

New construction segment in Berlin not running smoothly

Material shortages and cost explosions are causing problems. The costs cannot be passed on in full to the buyers, otherwise there is a threat of a collapse in demand. New construction prices, calculated over 12 months, are currently around 8,460 EUR/m². The offers are going down. In the last 6 months, about 2,610 Objects were brought to the market. Price increases were only partially enforced. In six months, the adjustment was only about 2.10 %. Please also see our district reports for more information on new construction projects in the districts.

Bird's eye view by year of construction and apartment sizes

The Bubblechart visualizes the sales offers clustered by construction year classes, apartment sizes and offer prices. Upper limit at 350 m² living space and a 15.000 EUR/m². Select the building year classes to be displayed in the menu.

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Berlin properties remain best asset class

High interest rates, shortages of raw materials, energy costs and inflation are probably only a temporary burden on the Berlin residential investment market. Unlike other local real estate markets, Berlin has a secure growth component. After a dip in inflows during the pandemic, migration figures are rising again. The long-term demand situation in Berlin is stronger than crisis-related fluctuations. The official urban development forecast assumes a population of almost 4 million people by 2040. This means that residential real estate in Berlin remains a secure, resilient and low-risk asset class in the long term. We expect developments to vary locally in the coming years, but to be positive overall in almost all neighborhoods. Many private and institutional international buyers are turning away from small regional markets and prefer to make long-term, secure investments in Berlin. This means that, despite the changing interest rate situation, rented apartments in the German capital remain a secure form of investment that can be traded at any time within a high price corridor.

The buy-and-sell strategies of recent years have become sustainable and long-term commitments. The transformation of Berlin into one of the most sought-after metropolises in Europe is far from complete and, with our help, offers you excellent opportunities. 

 

The housing markets in Berlin's districts

All 22 Berlin districts regionally delimited and at a glance: Price development of the last 12 months.

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+10.50 % 6,110 EUR/m²
-3.30 % 10,440 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+11.00 % 5,820 EUR/m²
-5.10 % 9,570 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+4.10 % 4,820 EUR/m²
+29.50 % 7,960 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
+11.60 % 7,260 EUR/m²
+8.50 % 9,930 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
+1.40 % 4,720 EUR/m²
+4.90 % 6,710 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
+19.70 % 4,220 EUR/m²
+2.10 % 5,500 EUR/m²
Mitte
+10.80 % 9,110 EUR/m²
+32.20 % 12,790 EUR/m²
Moabit
+14.70 % 5,450 EUR/m²
+14.80 % 10,560 EUR/m²
Neukölln
+5.80 % 4,740 EUR/m²
+19.80 % 8,990 EUR/m²
Pankow
+12.40 % 5,050 EUR/m²
+15.30 % 7,470 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
+8.30 % 6,980 EUR/m²
+8.00 % 11,110 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+10.20 % 4,320 EUR/m²
-1.00 % 7,190 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+7.40 % 5,910 EUR/m²
+14.20 % 10,310 EUR/m²
Spandau
+1.40 % 4,060 EUR/m²
+7.70 % 6,100 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+7.00 % 4,950 EUR/m²
+11.00 % 8,190 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
+9.10 % 4,630 EUR/m²
+8.50 % 6,650 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+9.20 % 7,780 EUR/m²
+13.10 % 11,960 EUR/m²
Treptow
+3.10 % 4,430 EUR/m²
+4.60 % 6,590 EUR/m²
Wedding
+7.00 % 4,520 EUR/m²
+11.30 % 7,960 EUR/m²
Weißensee
+1.30 % 5,140 EUR/m²
+21.70 % 8,700 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+7.90 % 6,780 EUR/m²
+11.00 % 10,100 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
+10.40 % 6,170 EUR/m²
+25.60 % 10,500 EUR/m²

Anonymous & good. Berlin's fastest property valuation.  

We determine the price range for your apartment in Berlin in a few seconds based on thousands of comparative offers and many years of experience. No need to enter your personal data or receive annoying acquisition calls. If you wish a more precise and individual assessment, our team is at your disposal.    

Rental Housing Market in Berlin

Residential housing built up to 2015 is currently being offered at a median rent of around 13.10 EUR/m², which, as of 05.10.2022 , corresponds to a development of around 2.80 % in 12 months. In 5 years, the increase in asking rents in the stock is approx. 25.40 %.  

Rents in new buildings

Offer rents currently average around 22.20 EUR/m², representing a year-over-year price adjustment of about 10.60 %, based on 2,930 Offers in 12 months. Within the last 5 years, the cold rents in new construction thus developed by about 60.70 %.

Price index rents Berlin

As of 05.10.2022 , median asking rents existing and new buildings.

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 13.10 EUR/m² - 22.20 EUR/m² -
1 Year 12.75 EUR/m² 2.80 % 20.10 EUR/m² 10.60 %
3 Years 11.15 EUR/m² 17.80 % 17.00 EUR/m² 30.50 %
5 Years 10.45 EUR/m² 25.40 % 13.85 EUR/m² 60.70 %
Data basis: IS24, Immowelt, Immonet offers, period: 05.10.2022 - 3 months, percentage changes compared with prior-year period

Cluster of rental offers

The Bubblechart visualizes the rental offers of 12 months clustered by construction year classes, apartment sizes and offer rents. Select the construction year classes to be displayed in the menu. 

Rent listings in the districts

Development of asking rents in Berlin over the course of the year. 

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
-1.30 % 15.75 EUR/m²
+26.10 % 31.50 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
-7.50 % 15.25 EUR/m²
+30.00 % 28.70 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+20.60 % 15.10 EUR/m²
+11.90 % 17.95 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
-12.30 % 14.60 EUR/m²
+4.30 % 25.00 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
-6.20 % 10.60 EUR/m²
+4.80 % 18.00 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
+1.50 % 9.45 EUR/m²
+54.80 % 19.35 EUR/m²
Mitte
+10.50 % 23.00 EUR/m²
+21.70 % 34.45 EUR/m²
Moabit
+2.20 % 16.10 EUR/m²
+6.10 % 22.10 EUR/m²
Neukölln
-3.20 % 11.00 EUR/m²
+3.50 % 18.70 EUR/m²
Pankow
-1.30 % 11.60 EUR/m²
+36.80 % 23.75 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
-6.30 % 15.30 EUR/m²
+13.00 % 25.00 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+0.90 % 10.20 EUR/m²
-1.80 % 17.20 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+3.50 % 15.00 EUR/m²
+13.60 % 26.45 EUR/m²
Spandau
-2.70 % 8.20 EUR/m²
+17.10 % 18.25 EUR/m²
Steglitz
0.00 % 12.60 EUR/m²
-1.60 % 19.05 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
-3.10 % 10.65 EUR/m²
-37.90 % 16.65 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+45.60 % 28.00 EUR/m²
+36.30 % 30.00 EUR/m²
Treptow
-2.10 % 12.85 EUR/m²
+16.50 % 19.55 EUR/m²
Wedding
+3.40 % 12.65 EUR/m²
+9.30 % 24.00 EUR/m²
Weißensee
+0.50 % 14.05 EUR/m²
+11.70 % 19.50 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+16.70 % 18.80 EUR/m²
+7.30 % 25.65 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
0.00 % 13.70 EUR/m²
+86.10 % 33.65 EUR/m²

Housing in Berlin

Lack of alternatives for households getting smaller leads to blocked trickle-down effects and further exacerbates Berlin's housing problem as aging and shrinking households encounter an empty housing market. Large apartments are under-occupied, small apartments are over-occupied. The housing deficit is not the same in all districts; within the S-Bahn ring, most units are lacking. Information on average household sizes in the boroughs is available from the Bureau of Statistics. Household sizes were last surveyed in the 2011 Census and have been statistically updated since then. Current figures are not published by the Office, so real household sizes in Berlin can only be estimated. We attempt a mathematical approximation by putting the numbers of reported households in relation to the number of apartments. The figures are available at the small-area statistical planning level LOR, which we aggregate to the old districts. The result is the following graph, which shows the excess demand in the districts. By excess demand, we mean the number of apartments that would be needed to meet the statistical household size.

There are almost 330,000 residential buildings in Berlin with about 2 million apartments, the majority of them in multi-storey buildings with 3 or more units. About 1.64 million apartments in Berlin are rented. Around 340,000 units, including apartments in detached and semi-detached houses, are used by the owners themselves. 

Housing Construction in Berlin

The shortage situation on the Berlin housing market cannot only be explained by the influx of new residents. A look at the past shows that the waves of immigration were based on an overhang of demand that was already high. In 2013, there were about 3.470 million registered residents in Berlin. With a statistical household size of 1.76 persons, the arithmetical demand at that time was 1.971 million apartments. The capital was already lacking around 88,600 apartments at that point - and since then Berlin has continued to grow.

Construction map Berlin

Our analyses show the construction completion reports since 2001 (source: Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg). We have aggregated the figures available at LOR level up to the old districts. 

Milieu Protection

Preserved areas according to §172 BauGB (Baugesetzbuch), usually shortened to the term "Milieuschutz" (protection of the milieu), have developed from an original urban planning instrument to a political one. For owners, landlords and sellers, milieu protection is a central issue besides the rent cap. The preservation statutes intervene in almost every phase of a real estate engagement. Many owners are surprised by Milieuschutz, as its development is not transparent. Please also visit our milieu protection section, where you will find an overview of our services. By means of our milieu protection map, you can check whether your property is located in a conservation area according to § 172 BauGB, or in an investigation or observation area. We continuously check all relevant resolutions of the BVV (local parliaments) and update our environmental protection map.

Population

The population structure with migration background in Berlin is very heterogeneous, due to historically divergent developments prior to the reunification. Even today, the international percentage of the population in the western part of the city is almost three times as high as in the eastern districts. Social spatial patterns are recognizable both with regard to the proportion of migrants in the total population of the districts and neighbourhoods and with regard to their origin. In our map, you can filter by nationality and display the proportion of your selection at district and LOR level.

Population mix

The population of Berlin currently consists of about 200 nationalities. In addition to 2,980,886 citizens of German nationality (as of 2020), the German capital is developing its dynamism and cultural diversity in interacting with foreign citizens. The chart shows the composition of the foreign population by nationality.

Migration

Berlin's attractiveness is expressed in the influx of new residents, whose composition is constantly changing. Since the motivation to register with the authorities as an in-migrant is greater than to de-register, population and in-migration figures always show changes. Many people are registered in Berlin without living here, others live here without being registered.

  • All migrations
  • International
  • National
  • Suburban
  • Inland

This report was last updated on 05.10.2022 .

Disclaimer

The Guthmann Market Report is a semi-automated report about the property market in Berlin. All information has been carefully researched and is given to the best of our knowledge and belief. We assume no liability for completeness, deviations, changes and errors. Our report does not represent an investment recommendation.

Sources

Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg: Einwohnerregisterstatistik (Bewegungsdaten), Fortschreibung des Wohngebäude- und Wohnungsbestandes, Ergebnisse des Haushaltegenerierungsverfahren KOSIS-HHGen, Baufertigstellungen. IMV GmbH: Rohdaten Preise und Mieten. Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Wohnen: Umwandlungsdaten (2018), Geoportal Berlin (FIS-Broker). Immobilienverband Deutschland IVD (2018/2019): Immobilienpreisservice 2018/2019.

Methodology

Housing deficit (Treemap): The Statistics Office updates the household data based on the 2011 micro-census. Determination of household count and statistical household size via household generation procedures (KOSIS). We calculate the real household size / housing deficits via the ratio number of inhabitants to number of apartments.
Purchase prices and rents (charts and reports): Calculation of the median on the basis of raw data, own visualization.
Migrations: Aggregation and visualization based on transaction data.

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