Last update: 02.06.2023

Berlin Real Estate Report 2023

The Berlin real estate market offers Germany's best opportunities despite the dip in demand and interest rate turbulence. The high demand for rental apartments and the good development of the location promise top prospects in the medium and long term. Current opportunities: more negotiating leeway, secure rents, good returns. Read our report to find out what options are open to investors, owners and sellers.

 

Berlin property market 2023

Dear readers,

Currently, significant forces are impacting the Berlin real estate market. Despite the dip in demand and the observable uncertainty among market participants, a permanent shift in the Berlin real estate market is not expected. The reason: Objectively speaking, the prospects in Berlin are very good. This includes the high demand for rental apartments in Berlin, which results from the high influx of people and the favorable development of the location. As real incomes increase with falling inflation due to the strong labor market situation, investment properties in Berlin will boom again. Additionally, the currently better negotiable prices combined with rising rents effectively increase returns. Those with equity can refinance the remaining amount in a few years with shorter-term loans at lower interest rates and face no issues with banks' valuation behavior.

A crucial factor for further development is the interest rate environment. If construction interest rates remain at a relatively stable level of around 4 percent throughout the year, financing conditions will generally improve, and demand will stabilize even at the higher interest rate plateau. Given the conditions in Berlin, a rapid recovery is programmed.

The current motto for investors is to use equity, seize opportunities, acquire high-yield properties, and refinance later at favorable rates.

Property owners without the intention to sell are, at worst, moving on a temporary plateau. Follow-up financing should be designed for the short term.

Sellers operate within a wide range of profit-taking. The correct pricing is crucial for a successful sale.

Status quo:

While prices are falling in other local markets, the situation in Berlin is stable. Across the entire urban area, offer prices have risen by around 1.00 % in 12 months, as of 02.06.2023 . Almost all locations show gains in the first six months and slight losses or sideways movement in the second half of the year. Our district reports provide information on the situation in the 22 old districts. Breaking down the development further, no general downward trend is discernible. Instead, the sideways movement oscillates, sometimes upwards and sometimes downwards. Over nine months, the development is at 0.80 %, over six months at 0.80 %, and over a three-month period at 0.60 %.

On the buyer's side, higher interest rates, banks' equity-heavy valuation behavior, and inflation lead to higher costs when purchasing real estate. As a result, prospective buyers take longer to examine properties, calculate more carefully, negotiate more, and sometimes postpone purchasing decisions.

Despite the changed market conditions, sellers are still in a good position and can look back on 12 years of growth. The current weakness can be bridged in time. Those who want to sell now and take into account the situation on the buyer's side when determining the price achieve excellent results. Property owners can trust that the development of property values in Berlin is only temporarily stalled. Given the not only ongoing but increasingly scarce rental supply, a reversal of the trend is hardly to be expected.

Landlords are eagerly awaiting the new rent index, which was supposed to be published in May 2023 but will be delayed due to previous legal disputes. The lawsuit was filed against the Senate's award guidelines. Whether the rent index 2023 will be a realistic representation of the market or a political rent table remains to be seen.

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 5,550 EUR/m² - 8,410 EUR/m² -
1 Year 5,490 EUR/m² 1.00 % 8,430 EUR/m² -0.30 %
3 Years 4,830 EUR/m² 14.80 % 6,520 EUR/m² 28.90 %
5 Years 3,930 EUR/m² 41.10 % 6,000 EUR/m² 40.00 %
10 Years 2,270 EUR/m² 144.20 % 3,570 EUR/m² 135.50 %
Data basis: IS24, Immowelt, Immonet offers, period: 01.09.2022 - 3 months, percentage changes compared with prior-year period

How big is the apartment demand?

This varies widely from district to district. We try a mathematical approximation by calculating a hypothetical deficit via the correlation of household information, residents and housing stock. The method is simple and only serves as a rough estimate. Even though we do not distinguish between the demand for rental or owner-occupied housing, our graph shows in which districts the housing market is tight, and in which districts the excess demand is smaller in purely mathematical terms. In our district reports we break this calculation down to the level of neighbourhoods and districts. According to our method, there is a total shortage of 106,000 flats in Berlin.  

Click to see method

The Office of Statistics uses statistical procedures (HHGen, Kosis) and population register data to extrapolate the number of households and household sizes from the 2011 Census. One result is the statistical household size, which is calculated from the ratio of residents to registered households.  

To get an approximation of the housing deficit in Berlin, the districts, and the neighborhoods, we determine the ACTUAL household size by dividing residents by dwellings. We determine the purely hypothetical housing deficit by subtracting the existing housing stock from households. For us, an ideal ratio exists when there is one dwelling for every household. Parameters such as turnover stock and household agglomerations such as shared housing are not taken into account. We set the deficit in relation to the housing stock. We show the determined percentage value on a red-green color scale. Red means high deficit, green means balanced ratio.

We perform the calculations at the level of the LOR statistical planning areas, which we combine to form old districts. 

Property prices Berlin: development

Anyone selling a property in Berlin in 2023 will realize good results given the right pricing. The median price per square metre for an apartment in Berlin 10 years ago was just under 2,270 EUR/m², 12 years ago even only 1,680 EUR/m². Today the same property would be offered at a square metre of around 5,550 EUR/m² (median). This corresponds to a profit of around 144.20 % in 10 years, or 229.50 % in 12 years. 

The lower price segment up to EUR 2,500/m² has meanwhile disappeared from the market, while the mid-price segment from 2,500/m² to 5,000/m² continues to melt away. As of 02.06.2023 , the median asking price for properties for sale in Berlin is 5,550 EUR/m², which corresponds to a development of approx. 1.00 % compared to the same period last year. In 12 months, a total of about 30,080 portfolio properties were listed on Immoscout, Immowelt and Immonet.

Over nine months, the trend is 0.80 %, over six months 0.80 % and over three months 0.60 %. Over the course of the year, the number of new weekly listings on the big 3 listing portals is increasing, but without going above the previous year's level.

What is your property worth in Berlin? Find out here.   

Lockdowns, war and interest rate increases lead to visible amplitudes in asking prices. Especially in the last quarter of 2022, more flats were put on the market.   

New building projects stall

Material shortages and cost explosions are slowing down the new construction segment. Rising costs are not being passed on completely to buyers, otherwise there is a threat of a collapse in demand. List prices in new construction are currently around 8,410 EUR/m² in the 3-month period.  The offers are going down. In the last 6 months, about 3,060 Objects have been put on the market. Price increases were only partially enforced. In six months, the adjustment was around -0.30 %. Please also see our district reports for more information on new construction projects in the districts.

List prices for new-build properties have been moving sideways throughout 2022. The number of units brought to the market rose again towards the end of the year after reaching the lowest level in years in April 2022. 

Bird's eye view by year of construction and apartment sizes

The Bubblechart visualizes the sales offers clustered by construction year classes, apartment sizes and offer prices. Upper limit at 350 m² living space and a 15.000 EUR/m². Select the building year classes to be displayed in the menu.

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Trend

  • Since the 2000s, Berlin has evolved from a European real estate underdog to a mature, stable, secure, and highly attractive market. Although the price development has been substantial, it has not been speculative. After overcoming the pandemic-induced downturn, the influx of new residents has resumed since 2022, with forecasts for 2040 projecting a population of 4 million or more in Berlin, solidifying residential investments as a safe and low-risk asset class.

  • The German capital continues to enjoy investor confidence as the place-to-be. A wide range of regulations has shifted short-term buy-and-sell strategies to sustainable and long-term engagements. With the highest courts overturning extreme regulatory measures, legal certainty has been restored in Berlin.

  • Berlin will continue to benefit from its creative atmosphere and numerous collaboration opportunities, facilitating the exchange of knowledge and ideas. The presence of international high-tech corporations choosing Berlin as their location underscores confidence in the city's future viability and its role as a center for innovation and growth. The city is developing into a pan-European knowledge metropolis and a driving force for socio-economic progress, improving the quality of life for residents and promoting sustainable growth. Berlin is on its way to becoming a major hub for scientific, technological, and economic activities, drawing international attention and attracting investments. As a result of these developments, "Innovation made in Berlin" could become a globally recognized trademark, further cementing the city's reputation as a leading center for science, technology, and economic dynamism.

  • Compared to other European metropolises, the cost of living in Berlin is indeed lower. With living costs nearly 25% lower than in cities like Paris, Berlin offers a more attractive value for money. This also applies to the Berlin real estate market, where prices remain moderate despite a long and continuous growth phase compared to cities like Paris or Rome.

  • Berlin remains a tenant city in the long run. With approximately 330,000 residential buildings housing about 1.98 million apartments, the majority are spread across rental houses with three or more units. About 1.64 million apartments in Berlin are rented. The ongoing housing shortage in Berlin is likely to lead to increasing demand in the foreseeable future. Additionally, the current stagnation of purchase prices combined with rising rental prices boosts returns in the real estate sector. As the interest rate situation improves, demand is expected to stabilize and property prices to pick up again.

  • Berlin is no longer poor but still sexy. Household incomes are continuously increasing. The median net household income has risen from €1,675 to €2,550 between 2012 and 2022.

  • However, higher interest rates and inflation lead to overall higher acquisition costs, altered bank valuation behavior, and higher equity and creditworthiness requirements for customers. This results in an increase in purchase offers, with some property owners opting for a sale rather than refinancing.

Berlin remains a city characterized by secure investment opportunities, zero vacancy risk, and steadily organically increasing rents. We expect value increases in the high single-digit range per year, reflecting the ongoing growth and confidence in the Berlin real estate market. Additionally, the progressive internationalization of the population contributes to the city's dynamism and cultural diversity. Altogether, these factors make Berlin a highly attractive destination for investors seeking long-term and sustainable returns, as well as residents who want to benefit from the high quality of life and diverse opportunities the German capital has to offer.

More listing, higher competition

The number of property offers is increasing. Our analysis shows all existing properties on offer by price segment and calendar week, adjusted for offers that have already been on the market for longer than 12 weeks. It becomes clear that the competitive pressure among the listed properties will continue to increase. Increased supply, interest rates and recession concerns must be taken into account in pricing in the first two quarters of 2023.

Property markets in Berlin's districts

All 22 Berlin districts regionally delimited and at a glance: Price development of the last 12 months.

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
-2.70 % 6,150 EUR/m²
-10.60 % 10,670 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+12.70 % 6,160 EUR/m²
-8.70 % 9,200 EUR/m²
Köpenick
-2.80 % 4,730 EUR/m²
+4.60 % 7,790 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
-1.70 % 7,010 EUR/m²
+15.40 % 10,600 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
-3.20 % 4,630 EUR/m²
-5.40 % 6,600 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
+10.60 % 4,500 EUR/m²
-10.30 % 5,230 EUR/m²
Mitte
-10.60 % 8,490 EUR/m²
+14.00 % 12,490 EUR/m²
Moabit
-4.30 % 5,130 EUR/m²
0.00 % 10,560 EUR/m²
Neukölln
+10.00 % 4,950 EUR/m²
-15.60 % 7,580 EUR/m²
Pankow
-14.20 % 4,960 EUR/m²
+2.10 % 7,560 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
+3.50 % 6,960 EUR/m²
+0.80 % 11,550 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+6.20 % 4,410 EUR/m²
+5.70 % 8,010 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
-1.30 % 5,820 EUR/m²
+1.60 % 10,080 EUR/m²
Spandau
+0.30 % 4,270 EUR/m²
+5.40 % 6,450 EUR/m²
Steglitz
-1.70 % 4,870 EUR/m²
-5.10 % 8,170 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
-3.10 % 4,370 EUR/m²
-2.50 % 6,480 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+7.50 % 8,390 EUR/m²
-15.40 % 11,270 EUR/m²
Treptow
-6.70 % 4,240 EUR/m²
-12.00 % 6,030 EUR/m²
Wedding
+6.10 % 4,670 EUR/m²
-16.00 % 7,410 EUR/m²
Weißensee
-5.20 % 5,100 EUR/m²
+8.70 % 8,600 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+0.10 % 6,700 EUR/m²
+17.90 % 11,220 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
-4.10 % 5,970 EUR/m²
-1.70 % 10,330 EUR/m²

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We ascertain the price range for your Berlin apartment in just a few seconds, leveraging thousands of comparative offers and our years of experience. No need to input your personal data or deal with bothersome solicitation calls. If you desire a more precise and personalized assessment, our team is ready and available to assist you.

Rental Housing Market in Berlin

Residential housing built up to 2015 is currently being offered at a median rent of around 18.45 EUR/m², which, as of 02.06.2023 , corresponds to a development of around 41.30 % in 12 months. In 5 years, the increase in asking rents in the stock is approx. 68.00 %.  

Rents in new buildings

Offer rents currently average around 24.60 EUR/m², representing a year-over-year price adjustment of about 13.60 %, based on 2,740 Offers in 12 months. Within the last 5 years, the cold rents in new construction thus developed by about 62.70 %.

Price index rents Berlin

As of 02.06.2023 , median asking rents existing and new buildings.

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 18.45 EUR/m² - 24.60 EUR/m² -
1 Year 13.05 EUR/m² 41.30 % 21.65 EUR/m² 13.60 %
3 Years 11.30 EUR/m² 63.10 % 17.40 EUR/m² 41.60 %
5 Years 11.00 EUR/m² 68.00 % 15.15 EUR/m² 62.70 %
Data basis: IS24, Immowelt, Immonet offers, period: 02.06.2023 - 3 months, percentage changes compared with prior-year period

Cluster of rental offers

The Bubblechart visualizes the rental offers of 12 months clustered by construction year classes, apartment sizes and offer rents. Select the construction year classes to be displayed in the menu. 

Rent listings in the districts

Development of asking rents in Berlin over the course of the year. 

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+16.20 % 19.70 EUR/m²
-3.00 % 29.10 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+11.90 % 20.00 EUR/m²
-10.40 % 24.90 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+155.70 % 32.30 EUR/m²
+7.20 % 19.25 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
+11.70 % 17.65 EUR/m²
+14.80 % 28.05 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
+17.60 % 14.05 EUR/m²
+33.30 % 21.95 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
+14.50 % 10.65 EUR/m²
+26.60 % 19.50 EUR/m²
Mitte
+15.60 % 25.15 EUR/m²
+14.60 % 36.55 EUR/m²
Moabit
+16.10 % 19.80 EUR/m²
+40.50 % 36.65 EUR/m²
Neukölln
+5.90 % 12.60 EUR/m²
+21.70 % 23.60 EUR/m²
Pankow
+12.00 % 13.25 EUR/m²
+24.70 % 23.60 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
+19.60 % 20.10 EUR/m²
+14.40 % 27.60 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+6.90 % 11.65 EUR/m²
+14.50 % 20.65 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+26.90 % 20.00 EUR/m²
+23.90 % 26.50 EUR/m²
Spandau
+23.10 % 11.05 EUR/m²
+5.00 % 18.95 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+16.00 % 15.00 EUR/m²
+34.50 % 26.85 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
+83.20 % 18.10 EUR/m²
-1.90 % 18.05 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+42.00 % 28.40 EUR/m²
+22.70 % 31.05 EUR/m²
Treptow
-11.80 % 10.90 EUR/m²
-4.10 % 18.10 EUR/m²
Wedding
+4.50 % 13.35 EUR/m²
+12.30 % 25.40 EUR/m²
Weißensee
+0.90 % 14.05 EUR/m²
+53.80 % 33.75 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+26.60 % 23.55 EUR/m²
+39.70 % 33.65 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
+4.10 % 15.25 EUR/m²
+43.00 % 30.00 EUR/m²

Housing in Berlin

Lack of alternatives for households getting smaller leads to blocked trickle-down effects and further exacerbates Berlin's housing problem as aging and shrinking households encounter an empty housing market. Large apartments are under-occupied, small apartments are over-occupied. The housing deficit is not the same in all districts; within the S-Bahn ring, most units are lacking. Information on average household sizes in the boroughs is available from the Bureau of Statistics. Household sizes were last surveyed in the 2011 Census and have been statistically updated since then. Current figures are not published by the Office, so real household sizes in Berlin can only be estimated. We attempt a mathematical approximation by putting the numbers of reported households in relation to the number of apartments. The figures are available at the small-area statistical planning level LOR, which we aggregate to the old districts. The result is the following graph, which shows the excess demand in the districts. By excess demand, we mean the number of apartments that would be needed to meet the statistical household size.

There are almost 330,000 residential buildings in Berlin with about 2 million apartments, the majority of them in multi-storey buildings with 3 or more units. About 1.64 million apartments in Berlin are rented. Around 340,000 units, including apartments in detached and semi-detached houses, are used by the owners themselves. 

Housing Construction in Berlin

The shortage situation on the Berlin housing market cannot only be explained by the influx of new residents. A look at the past shows that the waves of immigration were based on an overhang of demand that was already high. In 2013, there were about 3.470 million registered residents in Berlin. With a statistical household size of 1.76 persons, the arithmetical demand at that time was 1.971 million apartments. The capital was already lacking around 88,600 apartments at that point - and since then Berlin has continued to grow.

Construction map Berlin

Our analyses show the construction completion reports since 2001 (source: Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg). We have aggregated the figures available at LOR level up to the old districts. 

Milieu Protection

Preserved areas according to §172 BauGB (Baugesetzbuch), usually shortened to the term "Milieuschutz" (protection of the milieu), have developed from an original urban planning instrument to a political one. For owners, landlords and sellers, milieu protection is a central issue besides the rent cap. The preservation statutes intervene in almost every phase of a real estate engagement. Many owners are surprised by Milieuschutz, as its development is not transparent. Please also visit our milieu protection section, where you will find an overview of our services. By means of our milieu protection map, you can check whether your property is located in a conservation area according to § 172 BauGB, or in an investigation or observation area. We continuously check all relevant resolutions of the BVV (local parliaments) and update our environmental protection map.

Population

The population structure with migration background in Berlin is very heterogeneous, due to historically divergent developments prior to the reunification. Even today, the international percentage of the population in the western part of the city is almost three times as high as in the eastern districts. Social spatial patterns are recognizable both with regard to the proportion of migrants in the total population of the districts and neighbourhoods and with regard to their origin. In our map, you can filter by nationality and display the proportion of your selection at district and LOR level.

Population mix

The population of Berlin currently consists of about 200 nationalities. In addition to 2,980,886 citizens of German nationality (as of 2020), the German capital is developing its dynamism and cultural diversity in interacting with foreign citizens. The chart shows the composition of the foreign population by nationality.

Migration

Berlin's attractiveness is expressed in the influx of new residents, whose composition is constantly changing. Since the motivation to register with the authorities as an in-migrant is greater than to de-register, population and in-migration figures always show changes. Many people are registered in Berlin without living here, others live here without being registered.

  • All migrations
  • International
  • National
  • Suburban
  • Inland

This report was last updated on 02.06.2023 .

Disclaimer

The Guthmann Market Report is a semi-automated report about the property market in Berlin. All information has been carefully researched and is given to the best of our knowledge and belief. We assume no liability for completeness, deviations, changes and errors. Our report does not represent an investment recommendation.

Sources

Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg: Einwohnerregisterstatistik (Bewegungsdaten), Fortschreibung des Wohngebäude- und Wohnungsbestandes, Ergebnisse des Haushaltegenerierungsverfahren KOSIS-HHGen, Baufertigstellungen. IMV GmbH: Rohdaten Preise und Mieten. Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Wohnen: Umwandlungsdaten (2018), Geoportal Berlin (FIS-Broker). Immobilienverband Deutschland IVD (2018/2019): Immobilienpreisservice 2018/2019.

Methodology

Housing deficit (Treemap): The Statistics Office updates the household data based on the 2011 micro-census. Determination of household count and statistical household size via household generation procedures (KOSIS). We calculate the real household size / housing deficits via the ratio number of inhabitants to number of apartments.
Purchase prices and rents (charts and reports): Calculation of the median on the basis of raw data, own visualization.
Migrations: Aggregation and visualization based on transaction data.

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