Last update: 13.08.2022

Berlin Real Estate Report 2022

Market conditions in Berlin are changing. Our market reports provide you with accurate, weekly updated and comprehensive insights and data. We offer strategies for your investments. 

 

Berlin property market ahead of a correction?

Dear Readers.

In Berlin, slight corrections are emerging on the real estate market. In the 12-month period, asking prices still increased by 7.50 %. Over the 6-month period, the increase is 4.20 % Percent slightly down but still up. According to our calculations, the current median asking price across all exchanges is 5,510 EUR/m², based on listings over the past three months. 

Influxes and low interest rates have sustained the upswing for years. While influxes are leveling off due to corona, interest rates on housing are rising. Added to this are increasing cost pressures due to a shortage of raw materials and inflation. Demand for Berlin real estate remains high. Prospective buyers are, however, taking longer to check and are paying more attention to location, rent, condition and upcoming investments due to energy requirements.

Berlin real estate market will continue to grow

The underdog with a large supply of run-down stock and sleeping neighborhoods has become a mature, stable, secure and still highly attractive real estate market, not least because extreme excesses have not occurred. Price developments in Berlin have been substantial, but not speculative. Unlike many swarm cities, where buying interest is waning, Berlin continues to enjoy the confidence of investors of all sizes. Berlin is not replaceable as a place-to-be and is becoming better, more modern and more international with each passing day. The excess demand will continue until at least the mid-2030s.

Interest rates decisive factor in pricing

Despite a stable real estate market, competitive prices and high demand: Berlin is not isolated from the critical overall economic development. Corona has put the brakes on influxes. Interest rates and inflation are rising, the energy crisis is forcing energy requirements and rapidly rising extra costs for tenants are triggering new regulatory ambitions. These effects, especially interest rate trends, are leading to changes in buying behavior. Banks and prospective buyers have to calculate differently than in times of lowest interest rates. With interest rates below one percent, even low-yield investment properties are attractive. The calculation is simple: rental income covers interest and repayment while the property value increases. For a financing of 300,000 euros and a term of 10 years, an interest rate step from 1.5 to 3.5 percent makes a difference of around 50,000 euros, which a buyer converts into annual net cold rents. Even if rising interest rates do not bring a turnaround, they are becoming the decisive factor in pricing. 

Comparing: Loans at 1.5%, 2.5% and 3.5% interest rates

Loan with 1,5      
Loan amount 300.000,00 Residual debt 235.309,85
Debit interest 1,50%    
Amortization 2,00% Total interest cost: 40.309,85
Rate / Installment 875 Total amortization: 64.690,15
Fixed interest rate 120 months Effective interest rate (in %): 1,51%
Loan with 2,5      
Loan amount 300.000,00 Residual debt 231.914,07
Debit interest 2,50%    
Amortization 2,00% Total interest cost: 66.914,07
Rate / Installment 1.125,00 Total amortization: 68.085,93
Fixed interest rate 120 months Effective interest rate (in %): 2,53%
Loan with 3,5      
Loan amount 300.000,00 Residual debt 228.283,70
Debit interest 3,50%    
Amortization 2,00% Total interest cost: 93.283,70
Rate / Installment 1.375,00 Total amortization: 71.716,30
Fixed interest rate 120 months Effective interest rate (in %): 3,56%

Declining asking rents largely without impact

The impact of rental development on purchase prices must be taken into account. Even though asking rents are currently falling (from a high level), there is only a minimal impact, if any, on purchase prices. This is partly because in some cases exaggerated rental expectations are being adjusted into the market, and also because new contract rents are still noticeably higher than old rents in almost all cases. Tenants are extensively protected by law and most landlords only set legally secure rents.    

Price growth in 12 years at 244.80 % and in 10 years at 166.10 %

For about 12 years, real estate prices in Berlin have only known upward movements. If you bought an apartment in the capital 10 years ago, you paid a median price per square meter of just under 2,070 EUR/m² and 12 years ago 1,600 EUR/m². As of 13.08.2022 , the same apartment would be priced at a median price per square metre of 5,510 EUR/m². This corresponds to an increase in value of about 166.10 % in 10 years, or 244.80 % in 12 years. 

So within a wide profit margin, temporary price corrections can be comfortably sat out. If you want to sell and find the correct price with a fair yield, you will sell at the all-time peak. As a seller, be prepared for the balance of power between sellers and buyers to be more in equilibrium than before. 

The offer of apartments coming from "reserve conversions" in milieu protection areas will loosen up the market here and there. Reserve conversions are those condos which have been converted despite a 7 years waiting period in which they can only be offered to tenants but not on the free float market.  In new construction, fewer completions and rising prices are to be expected in view of rising construction costs and shortages of materials.   

Learn more in our district reports here

Where are property prices in Berlin going?

Real estate prices in Berlin have risen constantly for around 12 years, for a long time in the double-digit range. The meltdown of the overall supply as well as the lower and middle price segments can be seen clearly. 

As of 13.08.2022 , the median asking price for buy-to-let properties in Berlin as computed by us is about 5,510 EUR/m², which corresponds to a development of about 7.50 % compared to the same period a year ago.  Thus, asking prices are rising at a slightly slower pace than before, but still noticeably. In 12 months, in the existing segment, about 26,880 Apartments were offered on the main exchanges (IS24, Immowelt, Immonet). The development is not homogeneous across all districts. While some locations are thriving, sellers' price expectations are dampened, especially in some trendy locations.    

Annual course 2022

From February until the last update 13.08.2022 , the course is still characterized by price increases and a slightly growing supply.

New construction segment in Berlin not running smoothly

Material shortages and cost explosions are causing problems. The costs cannot be passed on in full to the buyers, otherwise there is a threat of a collapse in demand. New construction prices, calculated over 12 months, are currently around 8,330 EUR/m². The offers are going down. In the last 6 months, about 2,520 Objects were brought to the market. Price increases were only partially enforced. In six months, the adjustment was only about -1.00 %. Please also see our district reports for more information on new construction projects in the districts.

Price Index Berlin

As of 13.08.2022 , median asking rents existing and new buildings.

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 5,510 EUR/m² - 8,400 EUR/m² -
1 Year 5,120 EUR/m² 7.50 % 7,680 EUR/m² 9.30 %
3 Years 4,530 EUR/m² 21.40 % 6,270 EUR/m² 34.00 %
5 Years 3,630 EUR/m² 51.80 % 5,550 EUR/m² 51.40 %
10 Years 2,070 EUR/m² 166.10 % 3,430 EUR/m² 145.30 %
Data basis: IS24, Immowelt, Immonet offers, period: 13.08.2022 - 3 months, percentage changes compared with prior-year period

Offer market: clustering by year of construction and apartment sizes

  • Existing buildings: approx. 26,880 offers on IS24/Immowelt/Immonet 
  • New buildings: approx. 4,810 offers on IS24/Immowelt/Immonet 

The Bubblechart shows the purchase offers clustered according to year of construction, unit size and asking price. Upper limit at 350 m² living space and a 15,000 EUR/m². Choose the building year classes to be displayed in the menu.

Gaining good insights with the world's most widely read Berlin market report? Hundreds of buyers visit us every day. Who can sell your Berlin property better than we can? 

Peter & Almut Guthmann Management Board

You have found your Berlin real estate agents

By proceeding you confirm that you have read and accept the Guthmann Estate GmbH privacy policy. You allow Guthmann Estate GmbH to contact you in order to create your search profile for the submission of individual property offers. Of course, you can unsubscribe from all our offers at any time.

Trend. Boom. Berlin.

It shows once again: Berlin is probably the safest, strongest and lowest-risk property market in Germany, possibly even in Europe. Anyone who has purchased real estate property in Berlin has been able to count on constantly rising prices in recent years, despite all the regulation.

Berlin is not comparable to the much older real estate markets in Düsseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich or Stuttgart. In fact, Berlin tends to benefit more from the currently falling prices in these regions. The capital's real estate is far from being overvalued and the considerable demand overhang is only being reduced very slowly. In addition, Berlin simply enjoys the bonus of being the capital city. Above all, the private international buyer market tends to turn much more to Berlin than to unknown or unfamiliar and hardly documented regions. Our market reports, and we are proud of this, contribute to making the Berlin real estate market transparent and understandable to the point. This makes Guthmann Estate a kind of ambassador for Berlin and, by the way, your bridge to the international buyer market.       

Even if rising interest rates are dampening the market's spirits, the risk of overpaying for a property in Berlin is very low, assuming a good appraisal and investment strategy. Short-term buy-and-sell strategies have turned into sustainable, resilient, long-term commitments. Concerns about a trend reversal are unfounded, especially since we expect evasive movements from other markets to Berlin. Due to interest rates, slight price corrections are to be expected temporarily, but we consider them almost cosmetic. The margin from the achievable selling price to the former purchase price will remain substantial in any case. Therefore, there will be no losers in the coming years, neither for sellers nor for buyers.

Will real estate prices in Berlin fall?

In Berlin, small and locally defined corrections in real estate prices within a narrow corridor can be expected at most. Our market barometer shows how the individual districts will behave over the course of the year. 

The Berlin real estate market does not move along the tracks of a normal cycle. It depends on the people who live, study, work and want to work in the city. The decision to buy a property in Berlin, whether as an investment or for one's own use, is always a commitment to Berlin. Here you will find the best intercultural conditions a metropolis can offer. Berlin is not on its way to becoming a new Paris, Madrid or London, but a new Berlin.

The transformation from the outdated city of the Berlin Wall to one of the most sought-after metropolises in Europe is far from complete.

This is the potential for your investment.

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+15.30 % 6,310 EUR/m²
+17.70 % 10,650 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+6.80 % 5,570 EUR/m²
+12.20 % 9,890 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+6.00 % 4,850 EUR/m²
+27.80 % 7,660 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
+11.40 % 7,250 EUR/m²
-3.80 % 9,810 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
+4.80 % 4,780 EUR/m²
+8.60 % 6,780 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
+23.10 % 4,350 EUR/m²
+12.50 % 5,770 EUR/m²
Mitte
+16.40 % 9,390 EUR/m²
+19.10 % 11,520 EUR/m²
Moabit
+15.40 % 5,370 EUR/m²
+29.70 % 10,560 EUR/m²
Neukölln
+2.50 % 4,560 EUR/m²
+16.20 % 8,430 EUR/m²
Pankow
+20.40 % 5,390 EUR/m²
+11.50 % 7,060 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
+11.00 % 7,000 EUR/m²
+15.60 % 11,440 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+7.50 % 4,220 EUR/m²
+17.60 % 8,180 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+11.50 % 5,880 EUR/m²
+7.80 % 9,730 EUR/m²
Spandau
+8.80 % 4,350 EUR/m²
+7.90 % 6,120 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+7.30 % 4,970 EUR/m²
+14.80 % 8,330 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
+16.50 % 4,660 EUR/m²
+9.30 % 6,640 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+10.20 % 7,800 EUR/m²
+34.10 % 12,810 EUR/m²
Treptow
+9.70 % 4,540 EUR/m²
+2.00 % 6,420 EUR/m²
Wedding
+4.00 % 4,420 EUR/m²
+20.30 % 8,020 EUR/m²
Weißensee
+5.30 % 5,260 EUR/m²
+19.80 % 8,400 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+10.90 % 6,840 EUR/m²
+2.10 % 9,920 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
+17.50 % 6,400 EUR/m²
+28.50 % 10,680 EUR/m²

Political agenda 2022

In the new government, there is an independent Federal Ministry for Building, Construction, Housing and Urban Development. Federal Minister Klara Geywitz (SPD), who heads the department, has brought remarkable personnel to her side. State Secretary Sören Bartol and State Secretary Cansel Kiziltepe, both SPD, have profiled themselves as strong supporters of the failed rent cap and pre-purchase practice. Which projects will make it onto the agenda in the next four years will depend not only on political ideas but also on the federal government's financial situation. 

  • The profit taxation is still considered a possible scenario. This would include a possible abolition of the speculation period in its current form or the extension of the holding period.
  • It is considered likely that share deals will be restructured and made economically unattractive.
  • A nationwide rent cap is considered unlikely, a so-called rent moratorium is not.
  • A cap on the permissible rent increase from currently 15 to 11 per cent in 3 years is considered almost certain.
  • A plan to oblige the municipalities to draw up a rent index on a uniform basis is also considered possible.
  • A tightening of the rent brake is also considered likely.

It is becoming clear that the coming legislative period will not only be characterised by more efforts in new construction, but also by regulatory ambitions. So it is quite possible that the projects that failed at the Berlin level will be revived under the responsibility of the federal government. It will be interesting to see what a possible balance of interests between finance (FDP), justice (FDP), interior ministry (SPD) and housing and construction (SPD) will be like.

Really anonymous. Really fast. Really good. Property valuation Berlin.  

We compute the price range for your apartment in Berlin in seconds based on thousands of comparative offers and years of experience. No need to enter your personal data or receive annoying acquisition calls. If you wish a more precise and individual assessment, our team is at your disposal.    

Rental Housing Market in Berlin

The signs of a continuing slowdown in the rental housing market in Berlin are becoming more solid. Existing flats built up to 2015 are currently being offered at a median rent of around 13.10 EUR/m², which, as of 13.08.2022 , corresponds to a development of around -0.90 % in 12 months. In 5 years, the increase in asking rents in the stock thus amounted to approx. 27.10 %.  

Rents in new buildings

Offer rents currently average around 23.95 EUR/m², representing a year-over-year price adjustment of about 17.90 %, based on 3,160 Offers in 12 months. Within the last 5 years, the cold rents in new construction thus developed by about 76.20 %.

Price index rents Berlin

As of 13.08.2022 , median asking rents existing and new buildings.

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 13.10 EUR/m² - 23.95 EUR/m² -
1 Year 13.20 EUR/m² -0.90 % 20.35 EUR/m² 17.90 %
3 Years 11.20 EUR/m² 17.20 % 16.55 EUR/m² 44.90 %
5 Years 10.30 EUR/m² 27.10 % 13.60 EUR/m² 76.20 %
Data basis: IS24, Immowelt, Immonet offers, period: 13.08.2022 - 3 months, percentage changes compared with prior-year period

Insertions in 12 months

  • Buildings with year of construction before 2015, approx.: 36,220 offers on IS24/Immowelt/Immonet 
  • New buildings with year of construction after 2015, approx.:. 2,820 offers on IS24/Immowelt/Immonet

The bubblechart shows rental offers clustered by construction year, apartment size and asking rent. Upper limit at 250m² and 30 EUR/m². Select the building year classes to be displayed in the menu.

Offer rents in the districts

Development of asking rents in Berlin over the course of the year. Asking rents are calculated retrospectively for three months at a time.

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+1.70 % 16.55 EUR/m²
+16.10 % 27.40 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+4.90 % 17.70 EUR/m²
+32.30 % 29.45 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+5.40 % 12.85 EUR/m²
+7.30 % 18.50 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
+3.70 % 17.60 EUR/m²
+8.30 % 24.40 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
-3.30 % 11.80 EUR/m²
+10.70 % 18.00 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
-1.50 % 9.40 EUR/m²
+21.40 % 16.40 EUR/m²
Mitte
+8.90 % 23.05 EUR/m²
+39.10 % 33.85 EUR/m²
Moabit
-3.70 % 16.45 EUR/m²
+30.40 % 27.15 EUR/m²
Neukölln
-1.00 % 10.90 EUR/m²
+7.50 % 24.05 EUR/m²
Pankow
-6.30 % 11.30 EUR/m²
+32.80 % 22.00 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
+6.90 % 18.35 EUR/m²
+20.70 % 26.65 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+4.40 % 10.35 EUR/m²
-10.70 % 17.00 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+0.10 % 15.05 EUR/m²
+0.80 % 21.10 EUR/m²
Spandau
-0.20 % 8.70 EUR/m²
+16.20 % 18.10 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+5.30 % 13.45 EUR/m²
-5.20 % 18.50 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
-16.00 % 9.95 EUR/m²
-31.30 % 18.40 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+39.30 % 25.00 EUR/m²
+23.10 % 26.75 EUR/m²
Treptow
-4.20 % 12.50 EUR/m²
+14.50 % 19.65 EUR/m²
Wedding
-7.60 % 13.00 EUR/m²
+33.70 % 27.40 EUR/m²
Weißensee
-5.90 % 14.00 EUR/m²
+23.90 % 20.95 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+12.80 % 18.80 EUR/m²
+12.00 % 26.35 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
+10.10 % 14.85 EUR/m²
+43.10 % 24.05 EUR/m²

Housing in Berlin

Lack of alternatives for households getting smaller leads to blocked trickle-down effects and further exacerbates Berlin's housing problem as aging and shrinking households encounter an empty housing market. Large apartments are under-occupied, small apartments are over-occupied. The housing deficit is not the same in all districts; within the S-Bahn ring, most units are lacking. Information on average household sizes in the boroughs is available from the Bureau of Statistics. Household sizes were last surveyed in the 2011 Census and have been statistically updated since then. Current figures are not published by the Office, so real household sizes in Berlin can only be estimated. We attempt a mathematical approximation by putting the numbers of reported households in relation to the number of apartments. The figures are available at the small-area statistical planning level LOR, which we aggregate to the old districts. The result is the following graph, which shows the excess demand in the districts. By excess demand, we mean the number of apartments that would be needed to meet the statistical household size.

There are almost 330,000 residential buildings in Berlin with about 2 million apartments, the majority of them in multi-storey buildings with 3 or more units. About 1.64 million apartments in Berlin are rented. Around 340,000 units, including apartments in detached and semi-detached houses, are used by the owners themselves. 

Housing Construction in Berlin

The shortage situation on the Berlin housing market cannot only be explained by the influx of new residents. A look at the past shows that the waves of immigration were based on an overhang of demand that was already high. In 2013, there were about 3.470 million registered residents in Berlin. With a statistical household size of 1.76 persons, the arithmetical demand at that time was 1.971 million apartments. The capital was already lacking around 88,600 apartments at that point - and since then Berlin has continued to grow.

Construction map Berlin

Our analyses show the construction completion reports since 2001 (source: Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg). We have aggregated the figures available at LOR level up to the old districts. 

Milieu Protection

Preserved areas according to §172 BauGB (Baugesetzbuch), usually shortened to the term "Milieuschutz" (protection of the milieu), have developed from an original urban planning instrument to a political one. For owners, landlords and sellers, milieu protection is a central issue besides the rent cap. The preservation statutes intervene in almost every phase of a real estate engagement. Many owners are surprised by Milieuschutz, as its development is not transparent. Please also visit our milieu protection section, where you will find an overview of our services. By means of our milieu protection map, you can check whether your property is located in a conservation area according to § 172 BauGB, or in an investigation or observation area. We continuously check all relevant resolutions of the BVV (local parliaments) and update our environmental protection map.

Population

The population structure with migration background in Berlin is very heterogeneous, due to historically divergent developments prior to the reunification. Even today, the international percentage of the population in the western part of the city is almost three times as high as in the eastern districts. Social spatial patterns are recognizable both with regard to the proportion of migrants in the total population of the districts and neighbourhoods and with regard to their origin. In our map, you can filter by nationality and display the proportion of your selection at district and LOR level.

Population mix

The population of Berlin currently consists of about 200 nationalities. In addition to 2,980,886 citizens of German nationality (as of 2020), the German capital is developing its dynamism and cultural diversity in interacting with foreign citizens. The chart shows the composition of the foreign population by nationality.

Migration

Berlin's attractiveness is expressed in the influx of new residents, whose composition is constantly changing. Since the motivation to register with the authorities as an in-migrant is greater than to de-register, population and in-migration figures always show changes. Many people are registered in Berlin without living here, others live here without being registered.

  • All migrations
  • International
  • National
  • Suburban
  • Inland

This report was last updated on 13.08.2022 .

Disclaimer

The Guthmann Market Report is a semi-automated report about the property market in Berlin. All information has been carefully researched and is given to the best of our knowledge and belief. We assume no liability for completeness, deviations, changes and errors. Our report does not represent an investment recommendation.

Sources

Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg: Einwohnerregisterstatistik (Bewegungsdaten), Fortschreibung des Wohngebäude- und Wohnungsbestandes, Ergebnisse des Haushaltegenerierungsverfahren KOSIS-HHGen, Baufertigstellungen. IMV GmbH: Rohdaten Preise und Mieten. Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Wohnen: Umwandlungsdaten (2018), Geoportal Berlin (FIS-Broker). Immobilienverband Deutschland IVD (2018/2019): Immobilienpreisservice 2018/2019.

Methodology

Housing deficit (Treemap): The Statistics Office updates the household data based on the 2011 micro-census. Determination of household count and statistical household size via household generation procedures (KOSIS). We calculate the real household size / housing deficits via the ratio number of inhabitants to number of apartments.
Purchase prices and rents (charts and reports): Calculation of the median on the basis of raw data, own visualization.
Migrations: Aggregation and visualization based on transaction data.

schliessen

Personal Advice

By submitting the form, I agree to the privacy policy of Guthmann Estate GmbH and consent to being contacted.