Multi-family houses in Berlin: Convergence of offer prices and transaction prices
Dear Readers,
Our May 2023 report tackles the question of whether the multi-family property segment in Berlin is on the brink of a paradigm shift. Reports predicting a price reversal due to rising interest rates and energy renovation costs are becoming more frequent. There is no denying that the CO2 emissions of buildings are gaining significant importance, both politically and economically. This is evident in the widening price differences between properties with low and high emissions. The price decreases visible in some price indices are usually not specifically listed for the year of construction, even though the usual CO2 emissions, caused by heating, insulation, windows, expansion status, and other factors, have become more than just a fine-tuning of the price. The quote "Location, Location, Location" must, for now, be replaced by "CO2, Interest, Location". The value achievable on the market thus fluctuates between these three price-forming points. The perception of a large number of classic old buildings has fundamentally changed in a short time: instead of an aesthetic focus, an economic-energetic consideration is now at the forefront. The charm of stucco remains, but must be enriched with efficiency in the future. Overall, the three commandments of green real estate lead to a temporary paradigm shift and consequently to a wait-and-see attitude and decreasing transaction numbers.
The current fluctuations in the real estate industry are likely temporary, as the determining factors - location, CO2 emissions, and interest rates - are not new, but their relative importance has shifted. Berlin continues to grapple with a fundamental lack of supply, while rental growth is clearly visible. In addition, we are currently confronted with negative real interest rates, meaning that inflation is higher than interest rates. There is no doubt that real estate is an effective investment strategy against inflation. Moreover, confidence is growing that the European Central Bank will begin to regulate the prime rate again in the second half of the year. In March 2023, the inflation rate in the eurozone was about 6.9 percent compared to the previous year, which represents a significant recovery compared to the previous months, when the highest value since the existence of the eurozone was reached in October 2022 with around 10.6 percent. This decrease could calm the price-forming factor of interest and contribute to price stability.
What does this mean in concrete terms? The data of the appraisal committee shows significantly fewer transactions, but rather sideways movements than downward movements. However, the price declines, almost joyfully stated in the media, are mostly offer prices. In other words: the visible prices are falling, the certified prices are still stable and were already below the offer level before the interest and energy turnaround.
The current situation puts owners under pressure who hold underdeveloped properties in good locations. Here, the injustice of the milieu protection areas systematically introduced in recent years hits many owners with full force. Those who wanted to renovate in the past could only do so very restrictively in conservation statutes. Milieu protection inevitably results in a reduction of investments in energy renovation. All previous milieu protection measures have proven to be bureaucratic obstacles that have hindered investments in climate protection. Extensive modernization bans have counteracted the achievement of climate protection goals over a long period and continue to have an effect. The conversion ban also prevents the allocation of expenses for climatic improvements to a community. The risk is therefore concentrated on the owners.
Will private landlords disappear?
The building sector in Germany is responsible for about a third of all CO2 emissions. Therefore, the federal government plans to make the buildings and apartments in the country climate-neutral by 2045. However, political pressure is increasing not only from Berlin but also from Brussels. The European Parliament recently agreed on a new directive on the energy efficiency of buildings in EU member states. This directive obliges more owners to renovate their buildings into energy-efficient buildings in the coming years. Berlin owners are hit hard by the new regulations because, from a climatic perspective, a large part of the property stock in the capital is completely outdated. With the currently high interest rates, the renovation measures, despite possible funding pots, will represent a considerable financial burden for many owners. Although the guidelines are still in progress, the turn towards climate-friendly living is becoming increasingly likely. According to the "Worst First" motto, buildings in energy efficiency classes G and F should first be renovated to class E by 2030 and reach at least class D by 2033. This exposes a paradox of milieu protection: If private and very often tenant-friendly owners have to sell because they can no longer operate economically in the pincer movement between conservation statutes and the sudden compulsion for energy renovation, the city loses an important social pillar with them.
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Decline in sales volume since 2006
We have analysed the number of sales of apartment buildings in Berlin by district from 2006 to the cut-off date of 31.10.2022. Similar to the appartment market, the number of transactions is constantly decreasing, while turnover is still growing to date. In 2022, according to our findings, the Berlin Valuation Committee registered 577 sales of rental apartment buildings with and without a commercial component by the end of October.
Average price level by district
The average price level of apartment buildings in Berlin has developed inconsistently in the districts over the four-year period. With the help of the GAA (Gutachterausschuss Berlin) we have identified median values. If you are interested, you can obtain further information in our district reports. A reliable assessment of the actual achievable sales value of your apartment building in Berlin should always be made after a precise examination and individually for your property. Our analyses serve as an initial guide concerning the price range in the old districts.
Building era and location
Classic old buildings up to 1919 make up the largest part of the housing stock. The highest factors are achieved in central city locations, although there is a wide spectrum in the differentiation according to micro-locations. The construction year class from 1991 onwards could have an advantage over classic old buildings in the future with regard to energy aspects. Post-war construction years currently achieve somewhat lower factors.
| Construction Era | City | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Von EUR/m² | Bis EUR/m² | ø EUR/m² | ø Faktor | |
| until 1919 in poor condition | 1.436 | 1.700 | 1.608 | nicht bekannt |
| until 1919 normal building condition | 1.482 | 3.333 | 2.322 | 32,9 |
| until 1919 good building condition | 1.980 | 5.036 | 3.612 | 32,2 |
| 1920 until 1948 | keine Fälle | keine Fälle | - | - |
| 1949 until 1970 | 1.793 | 3.296 | 2.504 | 27,4 |
| 1971 until 1990 | 1.519 | 3.943 | 2.712 | 29,3 |
| 1991 until 2016 | 2.592 | 7.134 | 5.067 | nicht bekannt |
| from 2018 | 3.221 | 16.262 | 7.088 | nicht bekannt |
| Construction Era | Weiteres Stadtgebiet | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Von EUR/m² | Bis EUR/m² | ø EUR/m² | ø Faktor | |
| until 1919 in poor condition | 984 | 2.983 | 1.928 | nicht bekannt |
| until 1919 normal building condition | 1.108 | 2.631 | 1.858 | 28,7 |
| until 1919 good building condition | 1.514 | 4.590 | 2.955 | nicht bekannt |
| 1920 until 1948 | 1.525 | 3.188 | 2.242 | 28,8 |
| 1949 until 1970 | 896 | 3.618 | 2.082 | 32,9 |
| 1971 until 1990 | 1.128 | 2.928 | 2.040 | 27,9 |
| 1991 until 2016 | 1.248 | 3.389 | 2.296 | 28,3 |
| from 2018 | 1.893 | 5.446 | 4.328 | 34,9 |
Interest rates putting pressure on factors
Since 2009, the transaction volume for apartment blocks in Berlin has been steadily declining. The development has been accompanied by consistent key interest rate reduction by the ECB. In July 2022, the key interest rate was raised for the first time in years to 0.5 percentage points, in October to 2.00 and further interest rate steps are expected.
Correlation of factors, interest rates and achievable purchase prices
The "multiplier" or factor stands for the multiple of the annual net cold rent of a property. The factor expresses in how many years the purchase of a property is repaid via the rental income. In times of low interest rates, the calculation is relatively simple, even if it does not take into account investments, rent increases and capital services. The calculation is factor = purchase price / annual net cold rent. As a result of higher interest rates, capital services increase and thus reduce profitability. In this situation, investors increasingly base their purchase decisions on a viable mix of location, property condition and expected development potential. It is crucial for the success of a sale to document the status quo of an apartment block precisely and make it transparent with our help.
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Typical timing of a sale
The transaction time for the sale of an apartment building in Berlin can be managed safely and quickly through professional planning and handling.
- Consultation: clarification of the initial situation, pricing in line with the market
- Professionally prepared documentation: Speeding up the review process by clients and banks, trust through transparency
- Marketing: Discreet off-market brokerage among solvent internal clients
- Contract handling: Contract review with lawyers and notaries, notarisation
- Examination period district in the case of pre-emption rights (read our blog article on pre-emption rights)
- Completion and due date of purchase price
- After sales: Smooth transition and follow-up support
In the case of sales in milieu protection areas (more information on milieu protection can be found here), the districts are still formally entitled to carry out an inspection, despite the judicially stopped pre-emption practice. With the introduction of the Building Land Mobilisation Act, the review period was extended from two to three months. Provided an apartment block is managed in accordance with the regulations of the conservation statutes, there is no right of first refusal. In practice, the districts should thus comply more quickly with the application for a negative certificate. The period of three months from the delivery of the purchase contract to the district corresponds to the exhaustion of the time limit.
Outlook 2023
2021 and 2022 were characterised by various twists and turns on the Berlin real estate market, which directly affected the submarket for apartment blocks. Within a few months in 2021, first the rent cap and then Berlin's pre-purchase practice were overturned by the courts. Shortly after the turn of the year 2022, prices for oil and gas rose in the wake of the Ukraine war, which led to an increase in inflation. In the summer, the ECB Governing Council initially raised the key interest rates in the euro area by half a percentage point and ended the period of negative interest rates. Further rate hikes followed in September and October.
No turnaround but changes
Geopolitical uncertainties, inflation and the interest rate swing will not lead to a paradigm shift or a turnaround in the apartment house market in Berlin. In an international price comparison, the asset class "Berlin apartment block" is still competitive and apartment blocks in the German capital will remain an internationally sought-after commodity in the long term. At the same time, the sharp rise in material and energy costs in the new construction sector makes existing properties an important form of investment, despite their energy disadvantages compared to new buildings. At present, the price per square metre of a solid apartment block does not even cover the pure material costs of a new building per square metre. And last but not least, the real estate market in Berlin is considered highly resilient and crisis-resistant.
Pressure on factors
The further development of interest rates in 2023 is not yet foreseeable. However, it must be assumed that the increasing pressure on profitability will lead to a further meltdown of realisable factors. The demands on sellers will also become more demanding. The comparatively very low number of transactions in 2022 will result in apartment blocks in Berlin being exposed to stronger competitive pressure and having to stay on the market much longer or go through price adjustments if the asking price is not in line with the market.
District Market Reports
This report was last updated on 22.05.2023 .
Disclaimer
The Guthmann Market Report is a semi-automated report about the property market in Berlin. All information has been carefully researched and is given to the best of our knowledge and belief. We assume no liability for completeness, deviations, changes and errors. Our report does not represent an investment recommendation.
Sources
Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg: Einwohnerregisterstatistik (Bewegungsdaten), Fortschreibung des Wohngebäude- und Wohnungsbestandes, Ergebnisse des Haushaltegenerierungsverfahren KOSIS-HHGen, Baufertigstellungen. IMV GmbH: Rohdaten Preise und Mieten. Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Wohnen: Umwandlungsdaten (2018), Geoportal Berlin (FIS-Broker). Immobilienverband Deutschland IVD (2018/2019): Immobilienpreisservice 2018/2019.
Methodology
Housing deficit (Treemap): The Statistics Office updates the household data based on the 2011 micro-census. Determination of household count and statistical household size via household generation procedures (KOSIS). We calculate the real household size / housing deficits via the ratio number of inhabitants to number of apartments.
Purchase prices and rents (charts and reports): Calculation of the median on the basis of raw data, own visualization.
Migrations: Aggregation and visualization based on transaction data.