Berlin housing market analysis 2021: Between 200,000 missing apartments and a puzzling vacancy rate

Depending on the calculation method, Berlin is short up to 200,000 apartments. With an estimated 3.8 million residents (including secondary residences) and a statistical household size of 1.77 persons, the theoretical demand is approximately 2.15 million apartments. The existing stock stands at around 1.95 million units. This gap is the main driver behind the current market trend.

Pinning down the exact deficit is difficult, however. It remains statistically unclear how many people registered in Berlin after moving away still actually live there. Add to that roughly 123,000 secondary residences. Regardless of the precise number, the demand overhang is structural.

126,000 empty apartments?

The 2018 Mikrozensus recorded 125,900 apartments in residential buildings as "found vacant." Relative to the rental stock, this would represent a vacancy rate of 8.7 percent. While the figure should be read with statistical caution, it raises questions: Is this a hidden reserve that could be mobilized? Or are these apartments vacant due to maintenance backlogs, speculative vacancy or the restrictions of the ban on misuse of residential space?

For owners, the number means above all: political attention on unused housing is high. Active management and prompt re-letting are strategically advisable.

Demographic consequences of the housing shortage

Berlin's birth rate has been declining for six years and stood at 1.37 children per woman in 2020. One reason: couples and young families cannot find larger, affordable apartments and postpone starting a family. At the same time, older Berliners remain in apartments that are often too large for them, because attractive, smaller alternatives are missing.

For the market, this creates two stable demand segments: family sized 3 to 4 room apartments are scarce and sought after. And properties suitable for age appropriate living are gaining in relevance.

Growing households: The flatshare effect

The statistically projected household size across Berlin is 1.81 persons. But dividing the number of residents by the housing stock yields higher figures in many neighborhoods. In Wedding, the calculated value is 2.12 persons per household, while the statistical figure is just 1.76.

The difference shows that many people resort to flatshares or live in overcrowded conditions because they cannot find their own apartment in Berlin. In central locations like Mitte and Neukoelln, this trend secures the rentability of larger period apartments.

New construction: Too little, too slow

Building completions in recent years have not been sufficient to compensate for population inflows, let alone reduce the existing deficit. New construction activity concentrates in the eastern boroughs. For owners of existing properties within the S-Bahn ring, this means: competition from new builds remains limited.