Market Analysis
Migration analysis 2013-2017
Internal migration in Berlin: Moving chains, filtering processes and what they mean for the housing market
Every move in Berlin triggers a chain reaction. Our analysis of 2013-2017 data shows how boroughs interact and why the displacement narrative often oversimplifies.
Peter Guthmann
Even though Berliners' willingness to move has declined as rents rise, the city remains in constant motion. Everyday life cycle events drive these moves, not gentrification or displacement: students become professionals, children grow up, workers retire. An apartment becomes too big or too small. Every move triggers a chain of follow-on effects. Every apartment left behind soon becomes someone else's home.
Filtering: What is behind moving chains
The filtering theory rests on a simple idea: people who move typically upgrade and free up a simpler unit. A household that rents a new development apartment usually comes from an older building of lesser quality. Another household moves into that unit, also stepping up one level. The chain continues until a newly formed household, say a student, takes the last freed-up apartment. This explains why demand across all price segments is connected, from new construction down to basic resale stock.
Kreuzberg and Neukoelln: Exchange, not a one-way street
The assumption that inflows to one borough automatically displace residents to another is often too simplistic. Our analysis of data from the Berlin-Brandenburg Office of Statistics for 2013 to 2017 shows a more nuanced picture:
- Moves from Kreuzberg to Neukoelln: 12,656 people
- Moves from Neukoelln to Kreuzberg: 9,416 people
Despite a net inflow from Kreuzberg, a strong counter-movement exists simultaneously. This is less about one-sided displacement than about active exchange between neighboring, socioculturally similar boroughs. It points to high permeability across borough boundaries and an expanded search radius among tenants.
[Table] This section contained a data table. [Chart] This section contained an interactive chart showing migration flows.
What the outflows from Neukoelln reveal
The distribution of outflows from Neukoelln to other boroughs is broadly spread. During the study period, Neukoelln shrank by about 8,500 people in net terms relative to other boroughs. This may point to market saturation or rising prices pushing households toward more affordable boroughs.
For investors, such migration data offers concrete signals: boroughs with a positive migration balance from more expensive neighboring areas carry potential for price appreciation. Boroughs whose outflows scatter widely show where demand is shifting. Market trends can be assessed more precisely this way.
We can break these analyses down to the level of planning areas (LOR).