A study by the research firm Prognos, commissioned by Allianz, puts concrete numbers on Berlin's future housing needs. The core finding: the population is growing, the number of households is growing even faster, and construction is not keeping up.
Population to grow 14 percent by 2045
According to the study, Berlin's population will rise to 3,775,000 by 2030 and to 3,878,000 by 2045. Compared to the base year 2013, that is an increase of 11.3 percent by 2030 and 14.3 percent by 2045.
Households growing faster than population
For the housing market, the number of households matters more than the number of residents. The ongoing trend towards smaller households, particularly single-person households, means demand for individual housing units grows disproportionately. The study projects 2,218,000 households by 2030 and 2,300,000 by 2045, a 16.3 percent increase over 2013.
Construction cannot meet demand
The statisticians assume an average of 6,672 new apartments per year will come onto the Berlin market through 2045. That is not enough. The supply ratio (housing units per 1,000 households) drops from 1,009 in 2013 to 936 in 2030 and 933 in 2045. In practical terms, households will have to double up or move to other regions unless significantly more is built.
Berlin overtakes Munich in housing scarcity
A comparison with Munich puts this in perspective. Bavaria's capital had 991 housing units per 1,000 households in 2013, fewer than Berlin at the time. But stronger construction activity means Munich's projected decline to 950 units by 2045 is more moderate than Berlin's drop to 933.
For owners and investors, the picture is clear: high demand with limited supply supports purchase and rental prices for apartments in Berlin over the long term. That applies to central locations like Mitte as well as well-connected peripheral boroughs like Neukoelln. The market development suggests Berlin will become one of the regions with the tightest housing supply in Germany.
