Market Analysis
Urban infrastructure and the property market
Berlin's primary schools at capacity: what the 2016 shortage means for the property market
Berlin's population boom is pushing boroughs to their limits. Thousands of children lack a regular primary school place for 2016/17, especially in Pankow. A relevant factor for location assessment.
Peter Guthmann
Over 34,000 enrolments in Berlin
With over 34,000 enrolments for the 2016/17 school year, registration numbers have reached a new high. Infrastructure in many boroughs is reaching its limits. Continued population growth and a rising birth rate are intensifying the situation. The shortage of school places is a direct consequence of demographic trends over recent years.
Pankow: 1,300 places short
The problem is most visible in the borough of Pankow: 5,196 registrations face just 3,840 regular places. The Berlin-Brandenburg Statistics Office counted around 8,500 children aged three to four in this borough alone back in 2014. These children are now reaching school age. Numerous new development projects are attracting additional young families.
Deferrals postpone the problem
Relaxed rules for deferring school-age children provide short term relief. In Pankow alone, parents have registered around 1,200 children for an additional year in nursery. A new cut-off date rule simplifies the process. But this does not solve the underlying problem. It pushes an even larger wave into the following year. According to statistics, 8,670 children aged four to five currently live in Pankow. The majority will need a school place in 2017.
School provision as a location factor
For owners and investors, this infrastructure bottleneck is a relevant consideration. The availability of school places is increasingly becoming a location criterion for families, one of the most important target groups in the Berlin housing market. Boroughs that offer functioning social infrastructure stand to gain in attractiveness. Conversely, neighbourhoods with major deficits risk dampened demand from families, even when modern housing is being built.
Emergency measures and building programmes
As an immediate response, class sizes are being increased. In Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf and Lichtenberg, the legal cap of 26 children per class is being exceeded, or temporary modular buildings are being erected. The education authority is planning construction programmes worth billions, but new schools will take years to complete. For now, overcrowded classrooms and provisional solutions remain the reality.