Market Analysis
Demographics and real estate
Population forecast 2016: Berlin could reach 4 million residents by 2030
According to the Senate Administration's population forecast, Berlin will grow to up to 4 million residents by 2030. At the same time, the average age is set to rise to 44.3 years.
Peter Guthmann
Berlin keeps growing. According to a population forecast by the Senate Administration for Urban Development and the Environment, the capital's population will increase significantly over the coming years. At the same time, the average age is rising. Both trends directly affect Berlin's housing market.
Up to 4 million residents by 2030
The forecast works with several scenarios. In the maximum scenario, Berlin could reach the four million mark by 2030. The middle projection, considered more likely, assumes a gain of around 265,000 people, bringing the total to just under 3.8 million. Between 1995 and 2001, Berlin actually lost residents as many moved to the Brandenburg suburbs. That period feels like ancient history now.
Sustained growth supports demand for housing across the entire city. For owners and investors looking at apartments in Berlin, these are stable conditions.
An aging population
The average age is projected to rise from 42.9 to 44.3 years by 2030. The older age groups are growing particularly fast:
- The number of people aged 65 and over will increase by about a quarter by 2030.
- The group aged 80 and above will grow by around 66 percent.
Although Berlin has many students, their share of the total population is not large enough to noticeably lower the average age. Cities like Tuebingen or Freiburg, where students make up a fifth to a quarter of the population, are considerably younger on average.
For the housing market, this means growing demand for accessible apartments and age-appropriate living arrangements.
Pankow and Lichtenberg growing fastest
The strongest population growth is expected in Pankow, followed by Lichtenberg and Reinickendorf. These boroughs face the greatest need for new infrastructure, from housing and daycare facilities to local retail. Senator Andreas Geisel stated that the city intends to actively manage this growth through investment in infrastructure and housing construction.
Migration remains the driver
The numbers for the first quarter of 2016 confirm the trend: 43,200 people moved to Berlin, while only 35,100 left. Immigration from abroad increased by 8,800 people. In addition, around 50,000 refugees had arrived in Berlin in 2015. The number of German residents declined slightly by 120 during the same period.
This ongoing migration creates a broad demand base in the rental market across nearly all parts of the city.